Autopsy Negatives vs Hawthorn

[Seadog]

It's becoming increasingly clear that the club will have to offer up a sacrificial lamb to quell the masses.
I vote for Nisbett, the tail has been wagging the dog for too long and the board needs to stand up and make the change and if the can't they need to go too.
We are a conservative, stale and boring footy club at the moment, we need new enthusiasm and ideas to give supporters hope or people will walk away in droves.
It might take a few years to soak up the in the wings members but the day will come when we can't fill the stadium with members if nothing is changed.

 

[JuddyisGod]

Our best ruckman, two best midfielders, three best defenders, and three of our four best forwards. Plus Jones, Culley and SPS who were showing promise, and Cole who at least can play at the level.

Add a bunch of random others whose preparation and development have been massively disjointed by being injured themselves, or having to play half-cooked or out of position.

It's like Melbourne without Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, May, Lever, Petty, Fritsch, Pickett, van Rooyen(struggling to even find 3 good forwards, so imagine their replacements), Spargo, Bowey, Jordon and Hibberd.

My worry is a lot of the players you mentioned as guns are done either this year or next year

Best ruckman - NicNat (done)
2 best mids - Shuey (done) and Yeo (hasn't played more than 12 games in a season for 5 years)
3 best defenders - Gov (31 and injury prone), Hurn (done), Barrass
3 of 4 best forwards - Darling, Ryan, Cripps (31 & season-ending injury)

Most of the Melbourne players you mentioned are younger stars that aren't injury prone.

The list management has been poor IMO and there's a lot of pain ahead. This won't be a quick bounceback like we're used to.

 

[Grahame]

This is the problem from overestimating our list at the end of 2019 which was our last genuine shot. Giving up 4 draft picks set us back and now we have a host of ageing players that cannot get on the park and young players still honing their craft but no experience on the team to help them on game day truly awful.

I’d also query the thinking behind recruiting a 27 yo (Hunt) who is not coming home, is not known for outstanding leadership qualities and will not feature in our next premiership. Did the hierarchy really believe their narrative (hype) that we’d finish in the eight?
(I’d add even the most delusional could not think finishing in the eight would lead to a GF or flag. And with increasing numbers of older champs retiring we’d surely then drop down the ladder.)

 

[DanWCE]

It's becoming increasingly clear that the club will have to offer up a sacrificial lamb to quell the masses.

Tom?

 

[Bacchus]

This is the problem from overestimating our list at the end of 2019 which was our last genuine shot. Giving up 4 draft picks set us back and now we have a host of ageing players that cannot get on the park and young players still honing their craft but no experience on the team to help them on game day truly awful.

The older young players apart from Oscar and JJ lack skill. The players from the last two drafts show more promise but need a core team around them to help them as you say.

 

[Bacchus]

I’d also query the thinking behind recruiting a 27 yo (Hunt) who is not coming home, is not known for outstanding leadership qualities and will not feature in our next premiership. Did the hierarchy really believe their narrative (hype) that we’d finish in the eight?
(I’d add even the most delusional could not think finishing in the eight would lead to a GF or flag. And with increasing numbers of older champs retiring we’d surely then drop down the ladder.)

If you take Fitzpatrick at his word then I think they did believe we had another shot. Truly delusional as you say.
I don’t mind Hunt, he is kind of standing up when everyone else has fallen down around him.

 

[Grahame]

If you take Fitzpatrick at his word then I think they did believe we had another shot. Truly delusional as you say.
I don’t mind Hunt, he is kind of standing up when everyone else has fallen down around him.

Yes agree. Was not potting Hunt just querying the thinking behind it.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Yes agree. Was not potting Hunt just querying the thinking behind it.

Probably this:

The older young players apart from Oscar and JJ lack skill. The players from the last two drafts show more promise but need a core team around them to help them

 

[Ishmael_]

Everyone saying, 'imagine another team with these availability issues', is right.

But the difference is that all of our 'good' players stopped being bankable years ago and they aren't coming back.

Nic Nat, Gov, Shuey, Hurn, Gaff and probably Yeo/Darling are all cactus.

The issue is, that we failed to look at historical WC retirements and productivity output drops after 30. We didn't move quickly enough to refresh or get any value from those veterans.

There was no hedging and now the list is all-time bad.

That's on the entire back of house team. There's bad luck, which we've had plenty of, and bad management which we've also had plenty of.

 

[Seadog]

Tom?

Already sacrificed him but it didn't appease the gods or masses.

 

[JuddyisGod]

Everyone saying, 'imagine another team with these availability issues', is right.

But the difference is that all of our 'good' players stopped being bankable years ago and they aren't coming back.

Nic Nat, Gov, Shuey, Hurn, Gaff and probably Yeo/Darling are all cactus.

The issue is, that we failed to look at historical WC retirements and productivity output drops after 30. We didn't move quickly enough to refresh or get any value from those veterans.

There was no hedging and now the list is all-time bad.

That's on the entire back of house team. There's bad luck, which we've had plenty of, and bad management which we've also had plenty of.

This is what I feel is lost in the injury crisis discussion, a lot of the guys on the injury list aren't coming back and if they are, it'll be sporadically or at a much reduced output to their glory years.

 

[darksquare]

Lots of good points being made. Yes, most other teams would be stuffed if they had so many injuries to their best players. But they have fewer injuries, because their best players are younger or more durable. Also, they wouldn't be stuffed quite so badly because they have better depth.

Ah well. No quick fix, and not even the comforting consolation that it was all in the lap of the gods.

 

[FKASC]

Go check those draft picks we gave up and who was taken with them, then make a case for any of them being any good in our team (hint: one of the first round selections has already been delisted).

Just because Geelong used the picks poorly, doesn’t mean that we would have made the same mistakes.

2019:
We could have used our original pick 16 (Cooper Stephens) to take Sam de Koning (pick 19). We used our first pick to take Callum Jamieson at pick 49 so who’s to say we wouldn’t have taken a tall?

Our second rounder which went to Essendon netted them Nick Bryan (38), but we could have used that to take Chad Warner who was drafted with the next pick (39).

2020:
Whilst Ryan Angwin (our original pick 18) isn’t much chop, two of the next three players taken in Max Holmes (pick 20) and Jake Bowey (pick 21), are guaranteed starters.

I can’t make sense of the other Kelly swap permutations right now but it’s not as if we gave up peanuts because Angwin, Bryan and Stephens were questionable picks. in Cooper Stephens case it was considered a random decision at the time so unlikely to be representative of the quality of the pick.

It is cherry picking a little bit, but all of those players were taken pretty soon after our original picks. You can’t just judge the costs on what Geelong ended up with

 

[Rowan18]

Just because Geelong used the picks poorly, doesn’t mean that we would have made the same mistakes.

2019:
We could have used our original pick 16 (Cooper Stephens) to take Sam de Koning (pick 19). We used our first pick to take Callum Jamieson at pick 49 so who’s to say we wouldn’t have taken a tall?

Our second rounder which went to Essendon netted them Nick Bryan (38), but we could have used that to take Chad Warner who was drafted with the next pick (39).

2020:
Whilst Ryan Angwin (our original pick 18) isn’t much chop, two of the next three players taken in Max Holmes (pick 20) and Jake Bowey (pick 21), are guaranteed starters.

I can’t make sense of the other Kelly swap permutations right now but it’s not as if we gave up peanuts because Angwin, Bryan and Stephens were questionable picks. in Cooper Stephens case it was considered a random decision at the time so unlikely to be representative of the quality of the pick.

It is cherry picking a little bit, but all of those players were taken pretty soon after our original picks. You can’t just judge the costs on what Geelong ended up with

It's true that it probably lies somewhere in between. Geelong and GWS have pretty good recruiting teams, so we probably wouldn't have done astronomically better, but may have ended up with a couple of best 22 players.

The point I'm making is that the Kelly trade wasn't as catastrophic as people make out. From what you've found, at best we'd have DeKonning and Warner instead of Jamo and Kelly - that's slightly ahead but not by much.

 

[JuddyisGod]

Refusing to give up Jarrod Brander

31

Jarrod Brander

Age

25

Ht

195cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.3

2star

D

12.3

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.3

2star

CL

0.5

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.2

2star

for Kelly is the one that always baffles me

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Refusing to give up Drafting Jarrod Brander for Kelly is the one that always baffles me

 

[mehow2g]

Everyone saying, 'imagine another team with these availability issues', is right.

But the difference is that all of our 'good' players stopped being bankable years ago and they aren't coming back.

Nic Nat, Gov, Shuey, Hurn, Gaff and probably Yeo/Darling are all cactus.

The issue is, that we failed to look at historical WC retirements and productivity output drops after 30. We didn't move quickly enough to refresh or get any value from those veterans.

There was no hedging and now the list is all-time bad.

That's on the entire back of house team. There's bad luck, which we've had plenty of, and bad management which we've also had plenty of.

Were you crying about the list back in 2018? the writing was on the wall back then, hindsight is easy the club was focused on a flag during that time and we got one with a list that overperformed (not that talented) now we have to suck it up and go on the next run.

Could have the list been managed better? sure, but what we are seeing now is the result of choices that were made 5 years ago.

 

[JuddyisGod]

Refusing to give up Drafting Jarrod Brander

31

Jarrod Brander

Age

25

Ht

195cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.3

2star

D

12.3

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.3

2star

CL

0.5

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.2

2star

for Kelly is the one that always baffles me

Haha fair, we did very well from that draft so we can't be too mad.

I just never understood why Brander went from untradeable to a discard within such a short period.

 

[garlic munchers]

Just because Geelong used the picks poorly, doesn’t mean that we would have made the same mistakes.

2019:
We could have used our original pick 16 (Cooper Stephens) to take Sam de Koning (pick 19). We used our first pick to take Callum Jamieson at pick 49 so who’s to say we wouldn’t have taken a tall?

Our second rounder which went to Essendon netted them Nick Bryan (38), but we could have used that to take Chad Warner who was drafted with the next pick (39).

2020:
Whilst Ryan Angwin (our original pick 18) isn’t much chop, two of the next three players taken in Max Holmes (pick 20) and Jake Bowey (pick 21), are guaranteed starters.

I can’t make sense of the other Kelly swap permutations right now but it’s not as if we gave up peanuts because Angwin, Bryan and Stephens were questionable picks. in Cooper Stephens case it was considered a random decision at the time so unlikely to be representative of the quality of the pick.

It is cherry picking a little bit, but all of those players were taken pretty soon after our original picks. You can’t just judge the costs on what Geelong ended up with

You need to add to the Kelly trade calculation, the priority picks we are going to get for being so god damn awful.

I think we'll get at least another 1st rounder and maybe an of 2nd round before all this washes out.

Cue screaming and wailing from across the Nullarbor, to salve our tortured souls!

 

[mehow2g]

West Coast are still the biggest club in the AFL.

West Coast still have the best facilities and stadium in the country.

Our injuries are why we are where we are at right now. You will probably find that we scalp a couple teams late this year with returning players.

We are terrible right now but wont be forever , however the coaches must be overhauled. End of season latest.

Simmo, you won a flag well done. Your time is up, you simply cannot inspire players anymore. Thanks for your contributions and we look forward to seeing you in the reunions.

Assistant coach full overhaul. Nothing to break down here.

If we are to secure Harley Reid, we need to show the young man how great this club and W.A is.

Bullshit, if you watched the first 5 games he had the young kids on board with his gameplan and at times this team showed more hunger and intent than our premiership side, that does not mean the team is good that means the coach is good, he had the ability to get the most out of the players which they did in the first couple.

Simmo will stay to help with the rebuild and then moved on.

 

[VicBased]

Presuming we use every $ of our soft cap currently which I imagine we do.

Call Adam Simpson's salary in the midpoint of the quoted figure, making it $850,000 for the sake of argument.

For the sake of simplicity he's got 2.5 years left on his deal, the remaining 12 edit: 13 (forgot about the extra Gather Round game) games this season, plus '24 and '25, so we'll only cop half of his salary for the remaining half of the season. For the sake of argument his replacement coach is the same salary as Simpson is now, which obviously wouldn't happen, but I need to set the parameters somewhere.

If we pay him out season by season.
$425000 x 1.5 = $637,000
Next year it's 300% for the full season.
$850,000 x 3 = $2.55 million
2025?
$850,000 x 4 = $3.4 million. Half the ******* total soft cap right there.

Pay it out in one total lump sum? Yeah, okay.

He'd be due a total payout of just over $2 million. $2.125m to be precise. Cop one penalty? $4.3 million out at once for next season. 2/3 of the cap.

Just. Not. Feasible.

Thanks for all the figuring. Accountant?

 

[JuddyisGod]

Were you crying about the list back in 2018? the writing was on the wall back then, hindsight is easy the club was focused on a flag during that time and we got one with a list that overperformed (not that talented) now we have to suck it up and go on the next run.

Could have the list been managed better? sure, but what we are seeing now is the result of choices that were made 5 years ago.

Who is to blame for the overrating of the list?

I know Rohan O’Brien is list manager as of 2 years ago, having been in the recruiting team for the past 30 years. Strange to me he's now doing 2 roles.

Darren Glass quit after 1 year in the role starting in 2020.

before that the list manager was Brady Rawlings from 2016-2020

 

[Mop]

Thanks for all the figuring. Accountant?

God no, thankfully.
Just had lots of practise learning how to count how many goals we’re losing by recently - my maths is sharp

 

[Seadog]

Refusing to give up Jarrod Brander for Kelly is the one that always baffles me

If Brander was asked for in that trade he would barely have been the steak knives, Geelong would have still wanted a couple of high picks.
I don't think the Cats ever contemplated trading him after one year and the Brander thing was media conjecture rather than concrete demands.

 

[mehow2g]

Who is to blame for the overrating of the list?

I know Rohan O’Brien is list manager as of 2 years ago, having been in the recruiting team for the past 30 years. Strange to me he's now doing 2 roles.

Darren Glass quit after 1 year in the role starting in 2020.

before that the list manager was Brady Rawlings from 2016-2020

There's no one to blame we got a flag, the prized jewel of the competition.

The only thing we have struggled with in the past is trading we always give up to much and not many gun footballers nominate to be at Eagles so that is part of being in WA is very hard.