top 4 a real possibility...

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Mike_blues

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Mar 2, 2008
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with the dogs getting thumped and hopefully beaten by the eagles today
we are only 1 game and % out with a win against melbourne and port imo almost certain. a home final almost certain for us now if we beat port next week :D
GO BLUES!
 

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Day couldn't go any better ATM.
You'd still expect Dogs to win but if WC can somehow come away with this, and if Hawks can lose and Adelaide beat Collingwood. Then we're giving ourselves a mighty good shot.
Oh and Essendon need to beat Brisbane.

Big asks but all still a chance.
 
West Coast are turning into our bestest buddies atm.
Kennedy is braining them - 3 goals.

If Essendon, and Collingwood win (best case scenario) - we go to 5th.

In the end we need to win all games full stop, not worry about other results too much til round 22....
 
i wouldn't say left it late. simply lost 'winnable' games along the way.

i just can't believe after so long we are realistically contemplating a top 4 finish again.

ahh, im off to go stare into the distance :)
 

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Looks like all the results this week are all working in our favour. :eek:

We're catching up to the teams ahead of us and burning off the teams behind us. :thumbsu:
 
Footy is a strange game.

Calculations for top 4;

We are 1 game out of 3rd before the Crows v Collingwood game.

Lets say the Crows win, its means 3rd, 4th & 5th are on 48 points and we are on 44 points. Need to also take into account Brisbane vs Essendon, that game is hard to tip, its in Melbourne and the Lions haven't beat anybody of good quality and Essendon have been good this year. Its a real toss of the coin, but lets give the game to the Lions.

So we will have this
3rd Dogs 48
4th Pies 48
5th Crows 48
6th Lions 48
7th Blues 44

Over the next 3 weeks i expect the following;
Dogs 1 win 4 points
Pies - 2 wins 8 points
Crows - 2 wins 8 points
Lions - 2 wins 8 points
Blues - 3 wins 12 points

So the ladder as i expect will look like this
3rd - 6th decided by percentage
Pies 56
Crows 56
Lions 56
Blues 56
7th Dogs 52

Right now our percentage is better than the Lions and less than 1% worse than the Crows. Lets not forget we still have a percentage booster game against Melbourne left, the other teams just have winable games not really percentage boosters, so we could easily jump to 4th ahead of the Lions and Crows.

However in saying this, it could all be a lot easier if the Dons beat the Lions in round 18 tomorrow and if the Pies beat the Crows tonight in round 18 as it would leave Carlton, Lions and Crows all on 44 points, and our percentage would be higher so we would finish the round at 5th, and i expect to win the next 3 which means we would finish 4th on points.

There is a lot that needs to happen and a couple of games fall our way, but its a possibility based a results so far. Just imagine what could have been is we had beaten Essendon (rd 3) Hawks and Freo (GC) all games we should have won.

So if we finish 4th we would get the Saints round 1.
 
Sadly we've left our run too late ... IMHO.
Funny, last week your 'realism' had you debating the merits of Carlton making the 8, this week, that's all forgotten, but we should now forget about making the 4.

But yes, the run is too late - Even if Adelaide win tonight other results would have to be rediculously favourable. If they lose, our RD22 clash could well see us leap frog them, but not into the 4.
 
At the moment.... anything above 6th is a must... most likely Brisbane, Adelaide and Port Adelaide will be in the lower part of the 8th and 5th/6th would give us at least a home final if we face one of those 3. Of course top 4 would most likely be a home final (playing a fellow VIC side), and a second chance with a loss giving us a home final the following week.

I think we'll be finishing 6th which gives us a real chance!
 

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top 4 a real possibility...

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