Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[VandoHawk]

There is no guarantee that our development will be linear.

The Dees wasted 2019 and 2020 before saluting in 2021, Collingwood jumped up in 2018/19 before going again in 2022/23 and Richmond screwed around in 2014, 15 and 16 before getting the shit together in 2017.

Given the Hawks age profile it would not surprise me in the slightest if we regressed for a year or two. Giving up high picks for a short term need just screams danger, danger…

This is not a Hawthorn 2012 situation

One first round pick this year for a quality key defender, albeit an older one, is not going to harm our rebuild prospects given we've been in a talent acquisition phase for about 3 years.

I maintain we aren't giving up two firsts for Barrass. The most is 13 + F2.

 

[TheFourPillars]

There is no guarantee that our development will be linear.

The Dees wasted 2019 and 2020 before saluting in 2021, Collingwood jumped up in 2018/19 before going again in 2022/23 and Richmond screwed around in 2014, 15 and 16 before getting the shit together in 2017.

Given the Hawks age profile it would not surprise me in the slightest if we regressed for a year or two. Giving up high picks for a short term need just screams danger, danger…

This is not a Hawthorn 2012 situation

No there are no guarantees in the draft either. Trading and free agency on the other hand are known quantities. We will go to the draft once we have claimed trades and free agents we have targeted. Some of them may not eventuate but that's the game. Not going hard now on resources we need now would be foolish list management.

 

[hawkinoz]

If there's 2x first rounders involved it will likely just be our first for their 2nd type senario. If they deem our F1st not enough, we add our first pick 13 for their 2nd pick 21. So we essentially slide down a bit.

I personally think 1 pick between 15-20 is a fair deal. I know every year is different but just based on his age. Tom Mitchell was only a pick 14 at 22. Brad Hill as pick 21 at a similar age and had 3 flags and was already one of the best wingers in the comp. Both won BnF's in first year at new club.

The 2 first rounder was spruiked when it looked like we may win flag or make the GF. Hawks fan should np longer pay attention to that.

Pick 13 is more than enough, infact we should be getting something back, either F3 or a pick in 40's this yr.

Our aim should be finish this deal as early as possible or walk away with threat to use our R1 in other trades so other collateral we may get in other trades are not asked for.

 

[cryptor]

We also need to think that Watson, Dear, Mass, Moore, Weddle, Newcombe, Day still want young talent to come in for 10 years down the track. Giving up draft picks easily is doing a disservice to them

4 of those 7 players were late ND or rookie draft selections. They'd know early draft picks aren't everything. And I guarantee they'd care a lot more about improving the list for the next 3-4 years than worrying about 10 years from now.

 

[Billyc]

Feel like they'll take DGB and our first

Is there any reason to think West Coast want to use a list spot on DGB?. Much more likely it’s pick 13 and additional picks, which will interest West Coast more

 

[I wanna pash Nash]

I've always thought our first this year and our future second strikes the right balance of "I wish it was a bit less but West Coast would take it". That to me generally means it's a fair price.

I could also see a world where we give our first and future first. But get their second this year back and swap future seconds next year. Just to make it complicated for no reason.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[Bugs1977]

I suspect one of Weddle or Sicily plays higher up next year.

Lewis coming back mid-year.

Wouldn't be surprised if we go for a tall forward with Pick 30 either. There are a few around that range.

Are you of the belief that we'll be keeping our 2nd rounder (pick 30ish)?

 

[Billyc]

Are you of the belief that we'll be keeping our 2nd rounder (pick 30ish)?

Don't we have Collingwood's R2?

 

[ahhhhhh]

Another player that it would be negligent not to ask the question of is SDK. Dingley is pretty close to Mornington.

 

[StillAtLarge]

Agree with this. Yet apparently he wasn't happy with decision to not extend Stringer and made his displeasure known to Scott. So it would seem a complete 180 has happened

I always thought that was some bs that Essendon wheeled out to appease the playing group/members. Doubt Merrett gives two shits about String & Laverde tbh but you let Scott take all the heat for list decisions

 

[Bugs1977]

Don't we have Collingwood's R2?

Yes but it's still ours via pick swap

 

[Hawked Wings]

Sicily is the answer forward next year. Gunston and Breust I doubt play together and they should both play 10-12 games. Hopefully Lewis plays at the backend of the year but I doubt he gets anywhere back to his best until 2026
Forward line of chol, dear, Sicily, Moore, Ginni, Watson and Cmac would be my 7

 

[kazzooka]

The 2 first rounder was spruiked when it looked like we may win flag or make the GF. Hawks fan should np longer pay attention to that.

Pick 13 is more than enough, infact we should be getting something back, either F3 or a pick in 40's this yr.

Our aim should be finish this deal as early as possible or walk away with threat to use our R1 in other trades so other collateral we may get in other trades are not asked for.

Yup, tell them take 13 and do the trade or it'll be gone and they'll be looking at a future 1st and having to roll the dice on where we finish.

 

[butlers hawks]

The 2 first rounder was spruiked when it looked like we may win flag or make the GF. Hawks fan should np longer pay attention to that.

Pick 13 is more than enough, infact we should be getting something back, either F3 or a pick in 40's this yr.

Our aim should be finish this deal as early as possible or walk away with threat to use our R1 in other trades so other collateral we may get in other trades are not asked for.

You arent going to enjoy the deal when it happens. Pick 13 and getting something back isnt happening. West Coast will definitely be asking for the two firsts at least initially. The fact he is contracted gives West Coast all the power not Hawthorn. Before the next post is well then we walk away, saying it again, that very rarely happens when a player of Tom's ability nominates you

 

[Bugs1977]

Yup, tell them take 13 and do the trade or it'll be gone and they'll be looking at a future 1st and having to roll the dice on where we finish.

The only way we pull out of this deal is if WC ask for something outrageous that wouldn't have been semi agreed upon when Sam + Hickmott met with Barrass and his manager. WC would've already laid out what they were will to accept for him so both parties would have some sort of understanding of what the framework of a deal would / should look like and as I just said the ONLY way the HFC would pull out is if they went from asking for say 1 x 1st rounder to then asking for 2 x 1st rounders.

This is why I made a post earlier today to see what everyone thought that framework would look like. I've heard everything from:

• 2 x 1st rounders
• 1st rounder + 2 x 2nd rounders
• 1st rounder + 2nd rounder
• 1st rounder + 3rd rounder
• 1st rounder

All I know is the deal will get done but just hope we don't get bent over.

 

[almuz]

feels like we have so many defensive targets but forward talls is where our biggest gap sits ?

Battle and Barrass free up Sicily and potentially Hardwick which gives us way more firepower.

Agreed though, we need a long down the line outlet i.e. Mitch Lewis to come back healthy

 

[hawkinoz]

You arent going to enjoy the deal when it happens. Pick 13 and getting something back isnt happening. West Coast will definitely be asking for the two firsts at least initially. The fact he is contracted gives West Coast all the power not Hawthorn. Before the next post is well then we walk away, saying it again, that very rarely happens when a player of Tom's ability nominates you

For all you know the reverse may be true and you are the one not enjoying the deal( because you were proved wrong).

if Eagles start with 2 first we should start with 2 seconds.. Both ridiculous, then we meet in middle and settle for 1 first.

Feels like a loss to many Hawks fans if none comes back which means it is fair given the risks.

 

[butlers hawks]

For all you know the reverse may be true and you are the one not enjoying the deal( because you were proved wrong).

if Eagles start with 2 first we should start with 2 seconds.. Both ridiculous, then we meet in middle and settle for 1 first.

Feels like a loss to many Hawks fans if none comes back which means it is fair given the risks.

to be fair to this...the middle of two first and two seconds is a first and a second...likely where the value lands

happy to be proven wrong if I am I will enjoy the deal obviously but they will want more than what people in here think its worth and sadly, Hawthorn will pay more than us in here are comfortable with

thinking otherwise is just setting ourselves up to be annoyed

the same thing happens every year with every team. Team buying's fanbase under values, team selling's fanbase over values and invariably deals are split down the middle.

 

[RX Hawk]

I am not a pandit but when a player nominates a club USUALLY it gets done. My guess is also that all parties have a fair idea how far each club is willing to go.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Barras may be still contracted to WC but that doesn't mean they have to act like bandits to get the deal done. No one wins from that. Two firsts is a no go zone. İt won't happen. İt hinders our future options going frwd.

 

[westhawk]

Barras may be still contracted to WC but that doesn't mean they have to act like bandits to get the deal done. No one wins from that. Two firsts is a no go zone. İt won't happen. İt hinders our future options going frwd.

Exactly, it will be Tom’s manager that holds the cards. Doesn’t he also manage Harley Reid. The last thing West Coast will want to do is piss him off. Toms manager will dictate how this goes. He is one manager They don’t want to annoy.

 

[butlers hawks]

Barras may be still contracted to WC but that doesn't mean they have to act like bandits to get the deal done. No one wins from that. Two firsts is a no go zone. İt won't happen. İt hinders our future options going frwd.

I agree in part. It wont be the two firsts in isolation, however it could still very much be 13, F1 with the West Coast F2 coming back. Based on this years slots and not next year obviously that would be pick 13, ~13 for Barrass and ~21 (minus the North hand out too)

there could be another pick sweetener in there in Hawthorn's favor too maybe something to help them match a Anderson bid if they can match or something like that

 

[RCAB]

Sicily is the answer forward next year. Gunston and Breust I doubt play together and they should both play 10-12 games. Hopefully Lewis plays at the backend of the year but I doubt he gets anywhere back to his best until 2026
Forward line of chol, dear, Sicily, Moore, Ginni, Watson and Cmac would be my 7

Just a little fact..

Since round eight, Sicily has played 7 quarters up forward, and scored 8.3

 

[Hawk the Talk]

Just a little fact..

Since round eight, Sicily has played 7 quarters up forward, and scored 8.1.

He kicked 1.2 on Friday night playing forward… or was that stat excluding finals?