List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.3

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The issue is Rawlings always suggests he is willing to trade out of their high picks, but they want the world to get it done and other clubs walk away. He has had plenty of practice over the years and nothing has changed - so unless the penny has dropped it will be tough.

Twomey just suggested Collingwood have shown interest in Tim Membrey.

I wonder if the Brisbane picks swap involves and unofficial Jack Hayes move as a DFA?
Bloody Rawlings. If it wasn't for that campaigner, we would have Xerri.
 

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Id be disappointed if we weren’t.

What’s the deal looking like.

Pick 2 and their F2 for 8 and our F1?

Is that fair or not?

If they somehow get 13 pick I’d love to do 2+13 for our 7+8 and give extra if needed.

All our trades should have a caveat of no pick 7 involved. So...

F1, 8 & 35 for 2 & 25.

Either that, or we go for 11 or 13 for F1 & 35.

2, 7 & 25 or 7, 8, 13 - in this year's draft, if pains me to say, 7, 8, 13 is the way to go...

Not sure whether I'm talking FOS, Draper, Smith or Lalor here... but I need the Goodbye Sweet Prince gif inserted right here.
 
There is no doubt Cal Twomey is the smartest and most up to date journalist at this time of the year. He gets info from clubs others dont and fully understands the machinations of the trade and draft periods. His Gettable segment is by far the most informative of any of the Trade Radio nuffies.
 
Am I the only one who thinks Carlton way overpaid for pick 3

They’ve given up 13, F1 and F2 for an unknown pick 3 in a “super draft”.

Eagles got rightly shafted as well but jeez the Tigers come out of it well
Eagles basically got Baker and Owies for pick 19ish. Wasn't that bad.
 
Much like Hayes and Paton, I doubt the Pies are gonna cough up a pick for him. They're just throwing him a lifeline if he gets delisted.
If they were really interested they could have signed him up for free last week.

Would be terrible list management for them to pay anything for him now.
 

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That would value our F1 breakeven as pick 7 (this year), or between Pick 5-6 next year under the new point system.

Pick 44 this year would be fairer. Values our F1 breakeven as pick 12 this year, or pick 11 next year.
Yeah mate I’m not overly concerned what the breakeven position for us is going to be. The picks gone

It’s about getting value into the club NOW.
 
If it’s just pick swaps. I’d hold off until we see how this Houston deal works out.

But the pick I think we could get more reasonably is Freos 11. If that’s on the table.
11 for F1+32

8 to Richmond for 10+20 so they can take a tall in front of Melbourne

7 to Melbourne so for 9+F2 so they can take a tall in front of Richmond

9, 10, 11 is the new 7, 8, 9
 
11 for F1+32

8 to Richmond for 10+20 so they can take a tall in front of Melbourne

7 to Melbourne so for 9+F2 so they can take a tall in front of Richmond

9, 10, 11 is the new 7, 8, 9
You have just made us miss every top mid.

Well done.
 
Yeah mate I’m not overly concerned what the breakeven position for us is going to be. The picks gone

It’s about getting value into the club NOW.
Yeah, I'm just playing devils advocate. North would want to be sure they're getting the better end of the deal in order to slide back.
 
I hope we're leveraging our bidding potential in some possible pick swaps. At 7 and 8, Kako and Lombard are a genuine chance to be getting bids, Ashcroft will have already been bid on, but we can enter discussions with GC, Essendon or other clubs on the basis of points saved for no bids.

So picks 45 (347 points) and 47 (316 points) are worth 663 points I believe. Pick 28 (667 points) from Essendon for 45 and 47 (663 points) would cost them very little, almost nothing in points. If Kako goes at our first pick as a bid (pick 7, 1644 points) or if we guarantee them we won't bid, the next highest possible bid would be pick 9 (1469 points). If they do that trade and we don't bid, they're still up a minimum 171 points at worst.

Or for Gold Coast, we can negotiate that we won't bid on Lombard and similarly save them 175 points minimum from pick 7 to 9. Pick 23 is worth 815 points, a swap of 23 for 45 and 47 would see them lose 148 points, but still come out 27 points ahead if we assure them we don't bid.

Obviously there's a 20% discount for bids off their points value, however after the first Ashcroft bid, all picks and points values will come in a decent amount, so you would imagine clubs would already be taking that into account with their pick swaps or if they're conservative, wait for those trades on the night.

Of course if we save our trading of picks in the 40's until draft night there will be more concrete value as those picks come in. Once the bid for Ashcroft comes in, let's say pick 2 (2517 points or 2013 points after 20% discount) or pick 3 (2234 points or 1787 points after 20% discount), Brisbane will have chewed up picks 27, 34, 42 and 43 to make this work and they will still have a points deficit to carry over for next year (as far as I'm aware of the bidding system...).

All of a sudden our picks 45 and 47 are now 41 (412 points) and 43 (378 points) and worth a total of 790 as opposed to the 663 they were one bid ago. If Kako gets bid on at say, 9 (1469 points or 1175 points after discount) Essendon needs to use 28 and 31 to cover the points. Our picks 41 and 43 are now 39 and 41. If Lombard gets bid on at pick 9 as well, Gold Coast have to cough up 1175 points with a discount as well. Lets say they trade 13 soon and end up with a couple more picks in the 20's and 30's and cough up 2 of those to cover him.

After Ashcroft, Kako and Lombard bids our picks 45 and 47 currently could easily be picks 37 and 39, maybe come in further if clubs chew up more bids in the 30's than 20's.

I for one hope we hold up the draft at 7 and 8 at start leveraging bids on Lombard and Kako (given that seems to be about their value) and we can get some pick swaps in our favour.
 
Eagles basically got Baker and Owies for pick 19ish. Wasn't that bad.
No they didn't, they paid pick 3 for pick 12 (15 after bids) and Baker and Owies.

I'm assuming you landed on pick 19 using the DVI points to conclude that they only paid pick 19? They are useless for anything other than matching bids, they have never shown the true value of the earliest picks and this has been conceded by the AFL who have made changes for next year.

This is a disaster for a club so early it's rebuild. They're still at least 3 drafts away from being a finals team and by that point Baker will be in his 30s.
 
They would know which clubs Marshall has spoken to - maybe they reckon 27 is a chance of sneaking inside the bid. They've just removed the most likely bidder from the pecking order. Would be massive for them to get Ashcroft Marshall AND 27

edit: I'm an idiot of course 27 disappears with Ashcroft. Part 2 it is
Yep and I expect all the GC Bris and Ess picks currently held in the 20's and 30's will be traded out between now and draft night so there are currently
GC - 23 and 29
Bris 27 and 34
Ess 28 31 and 40

All of these need to be traded before a bid is placed on Lombard, Ashcroft and Kako - Bris and GC will trade into 2025 perfectly positioned to get overs for their picks in terms of Points for next year the advantage of having Academy players year after year means they are playing for points not draft position
Ess a bit of a mess who knows but probably the one to target they have to get out of this draft then try to get back in once the Kako bid is made potentially they will lose going out and going in
 

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List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.3

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