Game Day AFL Round 2 - Collingwood vs Richmond Matchday Discussion (MCG - 7.20pm)

[TradeDraft]

Take Our Chances and we should win tonight

 

[BringouttheGimp]

I wonder whether Cox may have been dropped due to the weather.
Although rained rather heavily last night, MCG has been in pretty good condition and can take a fair bit.
Maybe a late change?

The drainage at the MCG is great.

And judging from last yr.. where it rained quite frequently.. half the games we play this yr may well be rain/wet affected.

It's not like we count on Cox to pick up the pill when it's wet.. he's actually not too bad at throwing his body around and tackling and getting into the thick of it.

So wet or not wet.. id play him regardless. So I'm hoping tonight is more about structure than anything.

 

[Jasper84]

I'm not... We win tonight, IMO, those numbers are to highlight how important the win is from a statistical POV.

I'll leave the rationalisation of our chances to others like yourself if the result goes against us with Sydney at the SCG to follow

Sorry, I thought that when you said "Tonight is a win it just has to be or we really do kiss the season goodbye", that you were saying that if we lose tonight, the season is a write off. No idea how I came to that conclusion

 

[Ketchup]

Haven't been so confident ahead of a game since we played Gold Coast for the first time.

 

[60 Yards Out]

The data pool is 27 that's plenty. Despite your need to be right your doubts are irrelevant because you're arguing against numbers not a POV. Going any further back with different parameters is pretty pointless.

The stats don't lie and according to them a loss tonight leaves us with approximately a 4% chance of making finals.

Like I said we must win and take that eventuality out of the equation.

Edit: despite it being a pointless exercise I went back to 2000 and since then 11 of 76 have made the finals after starting 0-2. In the past decade the record is 3 of 49...

 

[100volt1]

If you're not already pumped for the game listen to this and then reassess yourself




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mkcaptain]

I wonder whether Cox may have been dropped due to the weather.
Although rained rather heavily last night, MCG has been in pretty good condition and can take a fair bit.
Maybe a late change?

I think if that was the case they would have named Cox and then made him a late out if they wanted one less tall because of the weather, rather than doing it the other way around.

 

[60 Yards Out]

The data pool is 27 that's plenty. Despite your need to be right your doubts are irrelevant because you're arguing against numbers not a POV. Going any further back with different parameters is pretty pointless.

The stats don't lie and according to them a loss tonight leaves us with approximately a 4% chance of making finals.

Like I said we must win and take that eventuality out of the equation.

Edit: despite it being a pointless exercise I went back to 2000 and since then 11 of 76 have made the finals after starting 0-2. In the past decade the record is 3 of 49...

With respect, I think you're misinterpreting the findings from your data. What they tell me is that the better sides don't go 0-2 down. You're seeing causality, I'm just seeing a statistical quirk.

 

[Hardas]

I just want to point out that I predicted the result for the corresponding game last year in the match day thread (Tiges up by 5 points, last second snap, goal...the whole shebang). My premonition was that Treloar rather than Grundy would drive the dagger through their hearts, but few would deny the power of my vision.

This year the Pies will romp it in. 73 points with a quarter to go, a disappointing last-quarter drop sees us get up by 48. Fas with 5.3. It has been divined.

That would be a pleasant evening's viewing!

 

[Countrypie]

With respect, I think you're misinterpreting the findings from your data. What they tell me is that the better sides don't go 0-2 down. You're seeing causality, I'm just seeing a statistical quirk.

Whenever I see these stats I always remember Adelaide going zip three then getting to 3-3 and Blight saying it had balanced up nicely. No one took them a s a serious flag threat until the 20-minute mark of the last quarter of their first premiership. There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

[JB1975]

That would be a pleasant evening's viewing!

It has been ordained by the cosmos. It will indeed be a pleasant evening. I'll be at a pub tasting the triple triumph of beer, parma, and victory.

 

[MJC23]

Sydney =L ST K = W Ess = W Gee = W

Would be very happy if we came out of that 4 game stretch with those results. Would also take 2-2.

Just bloody hope that we win tonight!

 

[nahnah]

Umpire 17 again, I change my tip to tigers by 20, yes he makes a 12 goal difference

 

[Scodog10]

Sorry, I thought that when you said "Tonight is a win it just has to be or we really do kiss the season goodbye", that you were saying that if we lose tonight, the season is a write off. No idea how I came to that conclusion

I have no idea myself when I've said in 4 seperate posts that I think we'll win including that particular comment...

 

[Kick It 2 Me]

Does anyone have the ABC Call with Gerald Wheatly of the Ending. It was Fantastic

https://audioboom.com/posts/4404613-final-5-minutes-774-abc-radio

 

[peter9789]

I thought I'd run the numbers on how important tonight is. What I found was amazing.

Since the league has been 18 teams in 2012 on 27 occasions teams have been 0-2. Of those 27 only 2 have gone on to play finals with one of those being by default (Carlton replacing Essendon in 2013).

Tonight is a win it just has to be or we really do kiss the season goodbye.

I don't buy into this thinking. No one had won a flag from 7th until Bulldogs last year. We can lose tonight and still make top 4. We wont of course but we could do it.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Haven't been so confident ahead of a game since we played Gold Coast for the first time.

Don't do that to yourself.

While Richmond is a sham of a football team at the moment, we're wildly inconsistent. Our best can be beautiful to watch. When you can go up to Spotless missing key players and spank GWS, you know your best is right up there.

But our worst? Is comfortably bottom 2 in the comp.

Richmond have no injuries (didn't really last season either) and needed to be at 100% for the entire match to get over Carlton. We won't need to be playing our best to beat them. We just need to be playing serviceable football. The issue with us, is that you never know what we're going to produce on any given day.

 

[stevebbb]

Pies by ~15
Think it'll be a close game, lead will change at every break

GO PIES!

 

[BringouttheGimp]

It has been ordained by the cosmos. It will indeed be a pleasant evening. I'll be at a pub tasting the triple triumph of beer, parma, and victory.

Ill be at the vue de monde sipping french wine and eating caviar and creme broulettes.

Pot and parma sounds devine though.

 

[Jasper84]

I have no idea myself when I've said in 4 seperate posts that I think we'll win including that particular comment...

Yep, got that bit loud and clear. It's your theory on what happens if we don't win that has drawn interest.

 

[Scodog10]

With respect, I think you're misinterpreting the findings from your data. What they tell me is that the better sides don't go 0-2 down. You're seeing causality, I'm just seeing a statistical quirk.

I'm not really concerned with the technical aspect of it. Only emphasising how rare it is for teams to recover from an 0-2 start to make the top 8! Perhaps Ron the Bear can give us something more in depth, but as it stands going all the way back to the start of the thread it's a must win.

 

[unplugged]

I don't buy into who umpires our games, nor do I know what any of their names are. But for a 9-game-a-week national competition, I'm surprised that they wouldn't have some sort of rotational policy which means you don't get the same umpires twice in a period of 8 weeks

(unless umpires do more than 1 game a week...? I have no idea)

 

[Horaceg]

Evert

I'm not really concerned with the technical aspect of it. Only emphasising how rare it is for teams to recover from an 0-2 start to make the top 8! Perhaps Ron the Bear can give us something more in depth, but as it stands going all the way back to the start of the thread it's a must win.

everytime we play Richmoan it's a must win.....

 

[Mkcaptain]

https://audioboom.com/posts/4404613-final-5-minutes-774-abc-radio

"It's deliberate! it's deliberate! (background laughter) There's going to be a shot at goal potentially after the siren. The Magpie's with one last chance. Darcy Moore, at the juncture of the 50m and the boundary. He's so tight to the fence its hard to get the angle right. They're 5 points down. Moore is the promised child for Collingwood, it would take an extraordinary kick. He goes to full forward, Pendlebury leaps... off hands... GRUNDY. (background gaffawing). It's the biggest steal I've ever seen!
It could only happen to Richmond! Preposterous! Ludicrous! (more laughter) Outrageous! (more laughter) Egregious!"

 

[JB1975]

Ill be at the vue de monde sipping french wine and eating caviar and creme broulettes.

Pot and parma sounds devine though.

Who said anything about a pot...