Preview Changes & Preview Thread for Round 18, 2023 vs Carlton at Marvel

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Top 4 is just about signed sealed and delivered. But if we win this weekend it would just about be mathematically put to bed too.

So as it probably has been for a few weeks now, it is about making sure we win enough games to finish top 2.

Our run home is tough from here but realistically we probably only need to win 4 out of the remaining 7 to finish top 2.

If we win this game and Brisbane lose to melbourne, we will have a 3 game buffer on Brisbane with 3 rounds to go. We would just about be nearly there, but if you flip those results it will get really interesting.

This is another one of those must win games as it's the easiest of our next 4. I think we should win our last 3 though.
Before the start of the season, we supposedly had the toughest draw in the competition - nobody in their wildest dreams could have imagined 14-2 after 16 games. So yeah: the last 7 games aren't easy, but this group clearly believes they can beat anyone, anywhere, any time. That sort of belief is tough to conquer, as Carlton will hopefully find out on Saturday.
 

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Posted this in today's game thread but fits here.

Against Carlton at Docklands next week - and they have no (recognised) ruck with both Marc Pittonet and De Koning out due to injury. So no need for a tap ruckman with no mobility as it will leave our mids exposed to a smaller faster centre bounce set up.

So Hayes out. (sorry Schulzy :cry:).

Give Dixon and his peg leg a well earned rest before Collingwood.

Bring in Ollie Lord (who's back from suspension) to rotate with Finlayson in the ruck

And I'm not sure what we do to replace McKenzie if his ankle is something serious but the SANFL form of a couple of players looks pretty good and surely Duursma has done enough to get a spot back in the As.

Narkle stays in. And maybe Burgoyne gets another look with Rioli out for personal reasons.
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It's funny in a sense that everyone knows there is an issue there and we've done very little to fix it over the last few years.

We’ve won 13 in a row so I doesn’t appear to be an issue right now and predicting our bubble bursting and laugh reacting to it is a bit of a red flag to me.

The post history is questionable to say the least.


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Surprised to note that the suns game was actually our highest contested possession count for the year.

They made us earn it and they were clearly up for the fight to make amends for the previous week.

Which begs the question was the game as bad as many have suggested. Is not enough credit been given to the suns for their string response?

Expecting champagne footy like the 3rd quarter for the whole game is probably a little unrealistic.

We shifted gears when we needed to. And it’s actually quite impressive that we’ve got the ability to kill a side with an avalanche in such a short space of time.

3rd quarter has become a bit of a thing, particularly at home. Brisbane, Geelong and suns have been completely left for dead on the 3rd quarters.

We really shouldn’t be worried about Carlton.


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There is two options - Jonas and Pasini. Anything else just throws our structures, and that's one thing we've been reluctant to do this season.

By all accounts, Pasini is not playing well. Jonas may not be either, but he's experienced and our captain, which gets him the nod over debuting someone out of form.

The options are selecting Jonas or shifting a current player in the 22 to cover McKenzie. Unless they consider moving Burton to Mackenzie's spot. Carlton's tall forwards stretch us regardless.
 
The options are selecting Jonas or shifting a current player in the 22 to cover McKenzie. Unless they consider moving Burton to Mackenzie's spot. Carlton's tall forwards stretch us regardless.
I keep saying it - none of our current defenders have the body size or strength to go with Curnow or McKay. Burton is tall, but he's built like a stick, and would get bullied. Bergman is a bit stronger, but gives up extra height, as does Jones.

Jonas has the experience playing on a bigger body - he has to be selected. It may not work out, and then we draw a line through him. If he can do a serviceable job, then that's great. Better we find out now rather than later.
 

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I keep saying it - none of our current defenders have the body size or strength to go with Curnow or McKay. Burton is tall, but he's built like a stick, and would get bullied. Bergman is a bit stronger, but gives up extra height, as does Jones.

Jonas has the experience playing on a bigger body - he has to be selected. It may not work out, and then we draw a line through him. If he can do a serviceable job, then that's great. Better we find out now rather than later.
Jonas has magerly struggled in the SANFL, did you watch the Maggies game on the weekend? What from that game makes you think Jonas can come in and play a role on either McKay or Cunow?

The reality is, Jonas isn't up to it anymore. He looks slow and gets too easily out-bodied playing against SANFL players, let a low either of Curnow or McKay.

You'd be inviting a big bag of goals + from who ever you put him on.
 
Here is Jonas against an SANFL reserves footballer that's never played senior SANFL footy before.

Jonas losing contests like this stuck out like a sore thumb in the AFL side before he got dropped.
 
Jonas was playing ok and wasn't dropped. I just don't really see a need to bring him back in. Jones can do just as good a job.

Bergman dropping back to replace McKenzie opens a spot for Duursma on the wing.
 
Here is Jonas against an SANFL reserves footballer that's never played senior SANFL footy before.

Jonas losing contests like this stuck out like a sore thumb in the AFL side before he got dropped.

I have to admit, that is terrible defending - but I will note that it's an extremely poor defensive structure there. It's a one on one and the other bloke has the entire 50. That kick could have been short to a lead, over the top or anywhere else really. It's not a good place for any defender to be in.

I haven't watched the game so won't pass comment on his form, though my point is based on his last few AFL games which were OK.

He started the season horribly yes - but was OK before the two suspensions. Not great, but OK.
 
Here is Jonas against an SANFL reserves footballer that's never played senior SANFL footy before.

Jonas losing contests like this stuck out like a sore thumb in the AFL side before he got dropped.

Bit harsh Ross.

Woodville Oval on Saturday was like the La Brea tarpits.

Judging old end of life warriors like Jonas on a pitch like that in a single side by side marking contest against a young mobile 6'4" guy is not the best measure of whether he is a suitable match up on Marvel.

Not saying Jonas should come in. Just saying that is by no means a fair example of whether he should.
 
I would legit rather have any of Burton, Bergman, Jones or Williams play as a key defender over Jonas.
That to me suggests a big lack of knowledge. Burton and Williams would get towelled up. Bergman and Jones may be able to do a job IF the midfield pressure is good, AND he gets a tonne of support from the other defenders coming across.

It wouldn't surprise me if we start Bergman or Jones on him, and have Jonas coming across to help.
 
Yeah, I reckon Aliir on McKay and Bergman on Curnow and let the rest of the backline and midfield work.
You might well be right. Aliir takes McKay no doubt and is a good match. Bergs definitely starts in defence.

But remember Bergs is giving up 10 kegs and a couple of inches on Curnow and Curnow is as mobile as any forward. Will take a super effort to make that work.
 
Surprised to note that the suns game was actually our highest contested possession count for the year.

They made us earn it and they were clearly up for the fight to make amends for the previous week.

Which begs the question was the game as bad as many have suggested. Is not enough credit been given to the suns for their string response?

Expecting champagne footy like the 3rd quarter for the whole game is probably a little unrealistic.

We shifted gears when we needed to. And it’s actually quite impressive that we’ve got the ability to kill a side with an avalanche in such a short space of time.

3rd quarter has become a bit of a thing, particularly at home. Brisbane, Geelong and suns have been completely left for dead on the 3rd quarters.

We really shouldn’t be worried about Carlton.


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First half of Hawks too
 
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