Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[SnusCG]

Of course they do.

The Suns have an enviable list for three reasons only:

1. Consistently finishing low on the ladder for more than a decade and accessing high draft picks.
2. Consistently losing good players to more desirable destination clubs, thus getting even more high draft picks.
3. Having access to academy guns that other clubs cannot access.

I agree with all of this but I will point out that our academy in 14 years has produced only 4 first round picks:

• Jack Bowes, pick 10, 2016
• Jed Walter, Pick 3, 2023
• Ethan Read, pick 9, 2023
• Jake Rogers, Pick 14, 2023

Until last years crop we had almost no one coming out of our academy that was worth note.

 

[Nugett]

Of course they do.

The Suns have an enviable list for three reasons only:

1. Consistently finishing low on the ladder for more than a decade and accessing high draft picks.
2. Consistently losing good players to more desirable destination clubs, thus getting even more high draft picks.
3. Having access to academy guns that other clubs cannot access.

4. AFL handouts. Which gave them picks 1&2 which netted them Rowell and Anderson. Among other concessions the AFL has given them for previously being mediocre in running the club. Something North is now getting as well…

 

[The 747]

4. AFL handouts. Which gave them picks 1&2 which netted them Rowell and Anderson. Among other concessions the AFL has given them for previously being mediocre in running the club. Something North is now getting as well…

Hawthorn, Melbourne and Carlton are the clubs that have received the most priority picks I believe.

 

[VinnieB]

Im sure noone has ever said that without any context.

Also we may be tanking but could still have our first pick being pick 6 or 7.

Going on your efforts in recent drafts, pick 6/7 may be your kryptonite.

 

[DeathlyAccurate]

Can someone point me in the direction of their amazing youth? Who are their young guns of the future? I was lead to believe they’re littered with them.


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[VinnieB]

4. AFL handouts. Which gave them picks 1&2 which netted them Rowell and Anderson. Among other concessions the AFL has given them for previously being mediocre in running the club. Something North is now getting as well…

Well they did have their 2 captains, and probably best players, taken from them in consecutive years.

A new club finding their feet in a non-footy state losing players each year (you grabbed Scrimshaw who from memory was pick 3) and then having their 2 captains leave. Who would have thought the AFL wouldn’t step in?

You’re obviously still getting over having the opportunity to draft your great academy hope, Mosquito, taken away from you.

 

[SSSSSS]

I always thought going into the game it would be a 10 goal loss. We never play well against the GC especially up there. Bit of a bogey team.

Was going to be even tougher coming off two 6 day breaks against the two most experienced sides in the comp in what were physical slogs.

Was going to be even tougher being two interstate trips in a row.

The result didn't surprise me but the manner in which we lost was disappointing. Unlike all of our other losses this season we had moments where we threatened the game. We won a quarter here or there or in general started to get on top of the game or halved an area where we were getting smashed.

We didn't see the last night. Just comprehensively beaten in all facets. Just wasn't our day.

 

[Saab NLAW]

Did you see our midfield?

Noah Anderson had more disposals than all our mids combined.

Last season Hawk fans would lose it if you dared to suggest that the midfield is ordinary. Constant bewildering claims of being a top 5 midfield group using dodgy stats to prove it.

The reality is that Hawk fans have been in denial since Clarkson sold out their future for Mitchell and O'Meara. Those trades probably set your club back 5 years

 

[SSSSSS]

We've got the cavalry coming back soon over the next few weeks.

Day, Lewis, Wingard and Jiath to come back in the next 1-2 weeks.

Best part of yesterday was no injuries (I think?).

 

[nelk boys]

Last season Hawk fans would lose it if you dared to suggest that the midfield is ordinary. Constant bewildering claims of being a top 5 midfield group using dodgy stats to prove it.

The reality is that Hawk fans have been in denial since Clarkson sold out their future for Mitchell and O'Meara. Those trades probably set your club back 5 years

It's specifically Newk and Nash who are in poor form.

Worpel has been superb. No one can doubt that.

If we can fix their form, we will be close to winning these games.

Day's return will help.

 

[Bradkli]

We've got the cavalry coming back soon over the next few weeks.

Day, Lewis, Wingard and Jiath to come back in the next 1-2 weeks.

Best part of yesterday was no injuries (I think?).

Those 3 aren’t helping us beat anyone other than west coast and maybe north Melbourne.

Lewis was going worse than chol before being injured and other than 1 good quarter all season, chol has been deplorable.

If Wingard plays it means Macdonald doesn’t play and watson when he’s back.

Sicily. Moore. Newcombe. Nash. Breust. Lewis before being injured have all been nothing short of a disgrace this season. That’s the entire leadership group. That sums up the first 5 rounds.

 

[peetoo]

Ah we're back in the stage of the cycle that Hawks fans rate first round picks. I remember when they didn't need them because "only bad clubs need them."

And they got a few before the eagles got their second round pick at #30. Not a case of not needing them, just being realistic in knowing the ledger is stacked.

 

[peetoo]

Well they did have their 2 captains, and probably best players, taken from them in consecutive years.

A new club finding their feet in a non-footy state losing players each year (you grabbed Scrimshaw who from memory was pick 3) and then having their 2 captains leave. Who would have thought the AFL wouldn’t step in?

You’re obviously still getting over having the opportunity to draft your great academy hope, Mosquito, taken away from you.

Pity the afl took 14 years to decide to put a seasoned coach in place. It’s been a terrible waste of money and talent before that

 

[Foucault1989]

I hope Hawthorn aren't cowards and sack Mitchell. He deserves a long run at it to build the list. It would be weak to sack him if results don't turn around.

This is what a scorched earth rebuild looks like Hawks fans. It isn't just for clubs like LOL CARLTON. No teams bounce back after havking through their list to rebuild. 4 - 5 years to go with no guarantees it's going to work.

 

[Saab NLAW]

It's specifically Newk and Nash who are in poor form.

Worpel has been superb. No one can doubt that.

If we can fix their form, we will be close to winning these games.

Day's return will help.

Yeah, nah.

Every club has at least 1 or 2 really good midfielders, so what? Hawks have major issues across the ground and your trading has been really poor since Mitchell and O'Meara. Mitchell has 15 total wins, 6 against either North or West Coast. Your club have major issues but the biggest problem is that by the time you get your shit together clubs North and GCS will have overtaken you in a major way.

 

[Foucault1989]

Ah we're back in the stage of the cycle that Hawks fans rate first round picks. I remember when they didn't need them because "only bad clubs need them."

Rebuild LOL what's a rebuild? Clarko is king. Cos Hawthorn. Only loser clubs rebuild. Grand final every 4 years. Blah blah blah

 

[SSSSSS]

I hope Hawthorn aren't cowards and sack Mitchell. He deserves a long run at it to build the list. It would be weak to sack him if results don't turn around.

This is what a scorched earth rebuild looks like Hawks fans. It isn't just for clubs like LOL CARLTON. No teams bounce back after havking through their list to rebuild. 4 - 5 years to go with no guarantees it's going to work.

Mitchell is no chance of getting sacked. I don't think the heat will be on him internally for another two seasons at least.

 

[Foucault1989]

Mitchell is no chance of getting sacked. I don't think the heat will be on him internally for another two seasons at least.

Good because I hate it when rebuilding clubs do that. He at least has had the courage Clarko never had to rebuild the list and I think he is a very good coach. I like the way he goes about it.

 

[Vindicater]

Mitchell is no chance of getting sacked. I don't think the heat will be on him internally for another two seasons at least.

Heat would be on him already. But I agree he does not get moved at least until next season.

 

[Saab NLAW]

Good because I hate it when rebuilding clubs do that. He at least has had the courage Clarko never had to rebuild the list and I think he is a very good coach. I like the way he goes about it.

Clarkson ruined the list chasing another premiership.

In reality it was a good problem to have

 

[Red Bull]

If you don't have unwavering face in Mitchell you're a troll apparently.

Just like if you didn't have faith in Clarko you knew nothing about football.

Until Hawthorn moved him on, then it was fine to point out his flawed top up.

This rebuild is obviously new ground for many privileged hawks supporters who have pretty much only known success.
Besides one particular hawks supporter, Clarkson’s top up strategy was lauded universally by the faithful
Because Clarko
Because destination club
Because hawthorn
With that failure and Clarkson’s exit, 2 years of drafting under the “genius” rookie coach Mitchell would see the hawks back playing and winning finals apparently.
The brutal reality of the rebuild is now being hammered home to the faithful who are questioning the players, list management, conditioning, and coaching.
A loss this week to a club they have mocked relentlessly may be just the jolt required in accepting the reality of the task at hand …

 

[SSSSSS]

Heat would be on him already. But I agree he does not get moved at least until next season.

Maybe from the media but internally the board would know that Mitchell had been handed an absolute disaster and has steered the ship pretty remarkably given the circumstances.

 

[Crankyhawk]

What's going on with the Hawks?

The Suns seem to have more exciting kids, and everything else. If the Worpedo doesn't fire they are uncompetitive. James Worpel has become one of their most important players.

With a bunch of years down the bottom of the ladder, you'd think they'd have some Anderson, Rowell, King, Lukosious, Flanders, Powell, Ballard, Clohesy types picking up the mantle now or soon. The plug should've been pulled after 2016 but is that all that set them back so far?

Looking at their list profile, Hawthorn still seem a 2-3 years away at least from being a good side. I was one of the fools who thought they could back up their stronger performances last year and be on the fringe of the 8 for season 2024.

Suns got a bajillion earlier picks. The questions are on the development of our picks (injury has affected dgb a lot too) and whether therewere many taken after the picks that are clearly better.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I agree with all of this but I will point out that our academy in 14 years has produced only 4 first round picks:

• Jack Bowes, pick 10, 2016
• Jed Walter, Pick 3, 2023
• Ethan Read, pick 9, 2023
• Jake Rogers, Pick 14, 2023

Until last years crop we had almost no one coming out of our academy that was worth note.

Thats because previously you didnt even need to draft them

Davies, Jeffrey, Owenga, Johnson, Rosas, Graham, Budarick all went as pre-draft picks and for free or as very late picks

Davies was considered a top 10 if not top 5 draft pick. For all of that you lost pick 71 in main draft and pick 16 in rookie

Will Graham from last night was a pick 26 after a matched bid but was in reality a first rounder who slid through without a bid also

 

[Crankyhawk]

Those 3 aren’t helping us beat anyone other than west coast and maybe north Melbourne.

Lewis was going worse than chol before being injured and other than 1 good quarter all season, chol has been deplorable.

If Wingard plays it means Macdonald doesn’t play and watson when he’s back.

Sicily. Moore. Newcombe. Nash. Breust. Lewis before being injured have all been nothing short of a disgrace this season. That’s the entire leadership group. That sums up the first 5 rounds.

Moore was better than the others you have mentioned (and harder to influence games from half forward when the mids are poo)