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TheBrownDog
I dont want the hawks to make it either but id say they are better than a 50 % chance from here. Would have been almost 90 % if they hadnt dropped the gws game.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Oppo Camp Non Geelong football (AFL) discussion 2024, Part I
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I dont want the hawks to make it either but id say they are better than a 50 % chance from here. Would have been almost 90 % if they hadnt dropped the gws game.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
It definitely will be a GF as they will probably be 9th when the game starts and need to win to get in. But on what i saw yday even at home i think they lose. But its a weird year.
BlakeyNoFlakey
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Mathematically, they are still a chance, sure. But I don't think it's realistic. I have the Hawks finishing 9th with 13 wins and Freo finishing 8th because I think Freo can beat Port at home. But you're right. If Freo loses to both GWS and Port, then it may open the door for the Hawks to make 8th. But while I think Freo will lose to GWS, I do think they will beat Port at home.
If the Hawks win today, then they probably will make the eight, given their last two games. It really all hinges on today's game for them because losing means they have to rely on other results going their way, and that's never a good place to be.
Blues or Hawks today?
Another note is that after showdowns, i think statistically both Port and Crows lose after those games as they play their Showdown games like a Final which are really physical and grueling contests. Crows would love nothing more than to come out and mess with Port's run into Finals so they'll be red hot to try and play spoiler in front of a sold out crowd.
Port having to try and beat Crows in a grueling contest followed by traveling to play Freo in Perth with Freo's season on the line while Port are coming off a showdown?....yeah i reckon Freo will win and hold onto 8th like you said.
I just did a ladder predictor and coming into the preseason this year I had us finishing 7th....if we win our next 2 we'll most likely finish top 2.
If we lose 1 of the 2 we should finish around 7th.
Not to mention two Finals in my ladder predictor in the first week are in Victoria, the AFL would be stoked as currently it's looking like hardly any Finals in Melbourne.
Blues bounce back today and win. They've been in the gun from the media so to speak which usually sparks a turnaround from them.
Think they are about to go on another run of wins (next 3 heading into Finals, they also play Eagles and Saints like us).
Hawks will be pissed after what happened against GWS but i reckon Blues talent will stand up and win today.
Blues by a cool 9 points
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Nil all draw
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Your point about games after the Showdown is why i am picking Freo to beat Port in the last round
Hawthorn match up well on teams like Carlton who prioritise midfield dominance. In fact, one can argue Hawthorn are the best at it as of right now.
Voss is pretty mundane and won't move his players around like Mitchell will to unsettle things.
Hawthorn should kick away and end Carlton's season.
Voss is pretty mundane and won't move his players around like Mitchell will to unsettle things.
Hawthorn should kick away and end Carlton's season.
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Voss is honestly a poor coach that relies on his 1 and 2 wood and doesn't have the ability to change things.
Scott is a great example of someone who can and does change games often with moves. Voss can't or refuses to do the same.
I agree. Even when he was playing those two rucks at the same time, it was blatantly obvious the lack of run being generated.
We all hate Hawthorn for obvious reasons but you can't deny how good they are at building the foundations of premiership teams. It's more than just personnel. Like Geelong, it's a system. Their VFL side has often been strong.
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TheBrownDog
I get what you mean and they have to win today to control their destiny.
But if freo play how they have the last 2 weeks they wont win round 24.the question is can they lift with it all on the line?
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Possibly but port will need to win to be top 4 otherwise its 5th/6th..a lot on the line for them and freo. Port are better on paper though.
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On paper is the key here though.. They are also massive chokers when it come to finals or games that shape final mostly finals though.
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Hawks winning will make it very likely they make finals.
Hawks lose and they need to win the next 2 should be easy but they also require Freo to lose both which i give 50/50
Hawks win and if they win the next 2 as well the chance they make finals goes from 50/50 to 80/20 or maybe more
Geelong winning two very winnable games will keep us top 4 no matter what anyone else's results are.
I will not support Hawthorn making it at all, lets hope Carlton kill their season dead today so they can all go back under their rocks that they all scurried out from under once they finally started winning again...
In my ladder predictor, Bulldogs and Carlton win their next 3 and Port win 1 of 2 and we still finish 2nd...but even if I change Port to win all of their games we will still be top 4 if we win our next 2 (would put us in third)
This Freo win and Giants beating Lions has stuffed a lot of people's predictions because both Cats and Giants were pretty heavy underdogs going into away games out of their Home state with two top 8 sides trying to sure up their Finals runs.
Now both Lions and Freo are in trouble, Lions might not make top 4 meaning they've gone from "multiple Finals at the Gabba" to now most likely having to go on the road and win and Freo are in danger of dropping right out of the 8 altogether.
Basically, the only thing stopping us finishing top 4 is us...no one else.
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Chinacats
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In this season who knows who wins today…. Hawks & Adelaide wins would be good. I’ve tipped Carlton and the Bulldogs, so hawks and crows are good chances based on my tips!
Are you a believer in players who know the season is finished, won't quite give their all if faced with adversity during a given game?
This is where the final round may play a significant role in shaping the final eight.
Fremantle may know their fate vs Port Adelaide in that final game
Yup that win yesterday had massive implications for us, and should we win our last two games I think its more likely than not that we finish top 2.
Freo now need a result against either GWS away or Port at home, and they need a Carlton win today.
Brisbane/Pies is now huge next week because if Brisbane lose I think they miss top 4 and Pies need the win or finals might mathematically be out of reach for them.
I'd love an Adelaide upset today, means the next two weeks go absolutely mental with positions in the top 10 but affects teams as low as 12th.
And while the AFL will say its why we need a wildcard round, I would argue this season is showing why we don't need one. A Crom win today means the next two weeks are basically elimination finals for about 4 or 5 teams, and qualifying finals for others.
To go through the next two weeks where potentially 6 games a week have severe consequences for finalists is more entertainment and drama than 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th could provide over one weekend.
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Carlton being outcoached already
2 schools of thought and it depends on hostility between the teams. If Port are pushing top 4 and the Freo players genuinely don't like them, spite is a terrific motivator to **** them over.
But it also wouldn't surprise me if Freo did what we did last season and put players in for surgery, give any potential retiring players a send off, give a debut or two.
Oh its Sunday already
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