Richmond - time for a rebuild?

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With all due respect, this thread is delusional. Last time Richmond were told they need a rebuild was 2016, the year prior to 3 flags in 4 seasons.

There is plenty of young talent on Richmond's list. The holes now and in the future exist in the toughest areas to fill, quality key forwards and a quality inside/outside ball using midfielder. This is to be expected after only having 4 top 10 draft picks at the club's disposal over the last 13 drafts. Those were used on Conca, Vlastuin, Prestia(in a trade) and Gibcus.

The team is not functioning well at the moment but it is lacking its most experienced back in Tarrant, elite key forward in Lynch and best and most experienced ruckman in Nankervis. Teams get injuries but it just means the club is forced to play 3-4 inexperienced or no properly prepared talls at the same time, and this is never going to be ideal.

The idea that Richmond will be looking to trade out established players for draft picks is not realistic. They will be looking to get at least one quality key forward as a free agent over coming seasons. And Richmond will also be hoping, realistically, some of the decent youngsters come on well over the next couple of seasons.

To describe the recruitment of Hopper and Taranto as a mistake is to say Cotchin, Martin/Bolton, Prestia and a kid or unsuitable player like Short or Graham is an acceptable midfield to run with in 2023 and beyond. The club sensibly recruited 2 very competent and strong bodied midfielders on very reasonably priced contracts, and paid the price on the term lengths. If a club lacking strong bodied inside mids was not prepared to do that when the opportunity presented you would have to ask what they are thinking.

The traditional gut the place and start again rebuild in a post free agent world is all but defunct. Hawthorn have almost been forced to do it and Carlton did before them, but you will see with the Hawks, just like the Blues did, and Adelaide, they will stockpile a bit of salary cap credit and start bringing in free agents and other ready made recruits on big contracts within a quite short time frame.

Richmond's best 22 currently looks something like this:

Back 7
Tarrant Balta Grimes
Vlastuin Broad Rioli Short

Wing 3
McIntosh Pickett Ross

Mid 4
Taranto Hopper Prestia Martin/Bolton

Rucks
Nankervis + Ryan or Soldo

Forward 7
Riewoldt Lynch Ryan/Soldo
Martin/Bolton, Graham, Rioli Jnr, Baker

I have left out Cumberland and Cotchin.

The bolded players look like imminent retirements, with some question marks around Grimes as well. But given reasonable fitness that is a team that could contend.

The club would be nuts to start thinking of selling off assets and going to the draft. Some very big contracts end in the foreseeable future:

2024 Prestia & Martin

2025 Lynch

So clearly the club will be looking at big money free agents and trades in the coming years. A lot of the rebuilding through the draft has already been done with D Rioli, Baker, Bolton, Balta, Graham, Ross, Cumberland, Rioli Jnr, Ryan, Gibcus, Sonsie all drafted since 2015, all established in the best 22 or on the fringes of it already, and Hopper and Taranto were originally drafted within that window as well. You would bet good money that at least 3-4 others drafted in recent years will become decent AFL players as well. So you add a couple of free agents or mature recruits to that over coming seasons, there is absolutely no reason to think the club would be uncompetitive.

The thread is way off track.

You also fail to recognize Richmond missed finals in 2021 and last year, were sitting outside the eight with a month left in the season before facing Essendon, Port Adelaide & Hawthorn, three teams who had effectively been eliminated from finals contention with nothing to play for.

Those defenders you have highlighted, they look like they are running on fumes. Reminds me of Geelong in 2017 when we had Henderson, Lonergan, Taylor.
Very one dimensional as Taylor was no longer a brilliant intercept defender and there was not much pace.

You also seem to ignore the decline of certain players. No idea why because it's starring you right in the face and has been for a couple of years.
Injuries are often used to gloss over the warning signs but guys like Martin, Riewoldt and of course Cotchin, they have been regressing ever so slowly.
Prestia and Grimes are looking shaky too.

Guys like Ross, Rioli, Graham (25) are barely contributing and have already been in the system for a few years. Will they even make it?

Of all the younger players on the list, so far, it's really only Bolton, Balta & Cumberland who have been a success. Along with Baker, Dan Rioli, Hopper & Taranto, they would form the nucleus of the next wave coming through. Only one kpp out of that lot when most teams have at least two or three promising kpp's on the rise.
 
Good post. I definitely didn't. It worked for last year, but plenty have seemed to immediately forget we had an 11 year gap in between premierships, and there were plenty of really bad finals losses and/or finals smashings in that time (twice in 2017, one in 2021) where a lot of those imports failed spectacularly. It underlines that every season really is different, and the same player can be perform dramatically different within a pretty small timeframe (i.e. Cotchin in finals in 2015 and then in 2017). It's still underappreciated how important our younger brigade was last year in the second half of the season. Even Scott mentioned at one point you don't expect 7-8 young guys to all click at once. They did. We wouldn't have won some games without Henry, Close, Atkins, Miers, DeKoning, and Holmes in particular. They also allowed us to play Dangerfield and Selwood off the bench. Unbelievably important to our season.

From what I've seen (and I haven't seen every game), the effort Richmond have actually put in was great until the Gold Coast game. They fought harder against Collingwood than I'd seen in a fair while. And in none of those losses would I lay the blame at either Hopper or Taranto. But you've had veterans hit the wall (especially Cotchin), Martin playing well but converting terribly (and not taking the right option a few times), Bolton way down, a forward line that just isn't working without Lynch and if Riewoldt is quiet (and he's been pretty good really), then of course a batch of kids that look promising, but are making mistakes along the way.

You can't play every youngster, but for me, I'd pencil in Cumberland, Ryan, Ralphsmith, Clarke, and Young at least for the rest of the season. Gibcus as well when he's fit and I don't know what others you've got. They get at least 20 games this year. That will be invaluable.

Somehow I don’t think many people are going to look at the ‘failure’ of repeated preliminary final exits and a grand final defeat as proof that a recruitment tactic didn’t work.
 

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Somehow I don’t think many people are going to look at the ‘failure’ of repeated preliminary final exits and a grand final defeat as proof that a recruitment tactic didn’t work.

That's in hindsight.

By Round 9 last year, we were 5 wins 4 losses and the overwhelming view of Geelong fans on here was that we weren't going to be winning a flag so no stress and see what happens. Now afterwards we act like it was never in doubt.

Not to mention in just about every one of those other years - especially 2016, 2017, and 2019 for starters - posters were falling over themselves to explain our list wasn't that good and we shouldn't expect premierships. To pretend it was always an amazing success and considered that is fiction.
 
That's in hindsight.

By Round 9 last year, we were 5 wins 4 losses and the overwhelming view of Geelong fans on here was that we weren't going to be winning a flag so no stress and see what happens. Now afterwards we act like it was never in doubt.

Not to mention in just about every one of those other years - especially 2016, 2017, and 2019 for starters - posters were falling over themselves to explain our list wasn't that good and we shouldn't expect premierships. To pretend it was always an amazing success and considered that is fiction.

It wasn’t that good. It was above mediocre and the tactic of recruiting from elsewhere was fine. One team wins the comp every year. It doesn’t make the 17 who didn’t ‘wrong’ to try and win the way they did.
 
You also fail to recognize Richmond missed finals in 2021 and last year, were sitting outside the eight with a month left in the season before facing Essendon, Port Adelaide & Hawthorn, three teams who had effectively been eliminated from finals contention with nothing to play for.

Those defenders you have highlighted, they look like they are running on fumes. Reminds me of Geelong in 2017 when we had Henderson, Lonergan, Taylor.
Very one dimensional as Taylor was no longer a brilliant intercept defender and there was not much pace.

You also seem to ignore the decline of certain players. No idea why because it's starring you right in the face and has been for a couple of years.
Injuries are often used to gloss over the warning signs but guys like Martin, Riewoldt and of course Cotchin, they have been regressing ever so slowly.
Prestia and Grimes are looking shaky too.

Guys like Ross, Rioli, Graham (25) are barely contributing and have already been in the system for a few years. Will they even make it?

Of all the younger players on the list, so far, it's really only Bolton, Balta & Cumberland who have been a success. Along with Baker, Dan Rioli, Hopper & Taranto, they would form the nucleus of the next wave coming through. Only one kpp out of that lot when most teams have at least two or three promising kpp's on the rise.

2021 Richmond missed finals for the second time in 9 seasons, off a pretty unique pre-season, so who knows what you can read into that. 2022 the club did not lose any game including against the Premier by more than 6 points in their last 17 matches, despite getting plenty of games into several first year players, and other inexperienced players. This year again a lot of inexperienced players are debuting or getting games. The trouble is some of those players, Ryan, Miller, Young in particular are being asked to play key position roles. And they are being asked to do that in the ruck with a largely new midfield, and in defence and attack with certain key personnel missing.

Over time if the players and team are good enough, they will adjust.

You mention Ross, Rioli, Graham. I don't think there is any thought Graham hasn't made it as a player, he played a meaningful role in 3 Premierships and is an excellent high half forward pressure player. Rioli Jnr is another excellent forward pressure player who for some reason has not been quite as good this year as last, so far, and is now injured. He is 20yo, so we don't just expect he has total mastery of his role forever, especially within a team with a clear change of game plan last year to this year. Ross is a fringe mid with some utility, who is a really good runner, but doesn't possess high pace. He is not a devastating ball user, but he is imo highly likely to occupy a wing in future and be able to play the way that Richmond like to use their wingers, to help out in the air in defence.

I think our key defenders look exceptionally well stocked for the future with Balta Gibcus and Young, but obviously Gibcus and Young need a bit of time to mature in the case of Gibcus and adjust to the level in the case of Young, who has played very little football at the age of 24. Maybe 80 games tops at any level in his whole life. The midfield you would think will sort itself out over the next year or so. We have a ruck and a back up ruck but it is just stiff they were both injured at the same time. And the big concern is clearly key forward. Lynch is as good as anyone in the comp but we have no viable option at present to cover his loss. It is obvious this is a priority and something the club will be working hard to rectify.

People are talking like Richmond has been turning in uncompetitive performances over a prolonged period and this is simply not true. If people think Richmond are going to fall apart, I am prepared to say I do not expect that to happen.
 
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I think people are missing the point of the Taranto and Hopper trades, they were brought in to supplement Rioli, Baker, Short, Bolton, Balta. Not Prestia, Cotchin, Martin, Lynch etc, even though the hope was likely that the timelines would overlap for a year or two and we'd be close to contenders.
It will be interesting to see whether some of the young guys take a jump or we recruit some players in the 23-26 age bracket.

Retirements
Players still performing but approaching the end
The sweet spot, quality players at a good age profile
Limited players at Afl level/list cloggers
Young players that look likely to be long term contributors
Promising players that are yet to be given an opportunity

NameAge
Jack Riewoldt34
Robbie Tarrant33
Trent Cotchin33
Dustin Martin32
Dylan Grimes32
Marlion Pickett31
Dion Prestia31
Tom Lynch31
Nathan Broad30
Kamdyn McIntosh29
Nick Vlastuin29
Toby Nankervis29
Jayden Short27
Ivan Soldo27
Jacob Hopper26
Daniel Rioli26
Liam Baker25
Tim Taranto25
Jack Graham25

Tylar Young25
Shai Bolton25
Ben Miller24
Noah Balta24
Rhyan Mansell23
Jack Ross23
Samson Ryan23
Noah Cumberland 22
Bigoa Nyuon22
Kalean Bradtke22
Thomson Dow22
Hugo Ralpsmith22
Maurice Rioli 21
Jacob Bauer21
Tyler Sonsie20
Sam Banks20
Josh Gibcus20
Tom Brown20
Judson Clarke 20
Steely Green19
Kaleb Smith19
Seth Campbell19


We are lacking elite young talent which is to be expected given our recent success and access to early draft picks, but we are also thin on players in the "sweet spot" unless a couple of youngsters can take the next step sooner than expected
 
Can I just clarify, are we really including Hugo Ralphsmith as one of their 'promising youngsters'?

Season 3 Baseball GIF by The Simpsons
 
People are talking like Richmond has been turning in uncompetitive performances over a prolonged period and this is simply not true. If people think Richmond are going to fall apart, I am prepared to say I do not expect that to happen.

Even when you guys were winning premierships, you were never the most dominant team in the competition. You just peaked at the right time of the season. They would always capitalize on the opposition making mistakes.
I really see no difference in competitive aptitude in 2023 but it's the lack of quality which is glaringly obvious.

It is why Tom Lynch looks far and away your best player as he's usually beating any defender on a weekly basis.
Other than him, no one else stands out and what's worse, the aura you once had, has almost completely evaporated. Every club knows Richmond are on the slide and they can smell blood.
 
It's certainly a transitional period for the club. Arguably in the next 3 years we'll lose:
Cotchin, Riewoldt, Tarrant, Martin, Grimes, Pickett, Prestia, Lynch and Broad (assuming that those 30 and up go).

For that reason bringing in Taranto and Hopper really isn't the sort of disaster that the media and lots of other fans are carrying on about given that they'll form a solid core of players that move into that 26-32 bracket when the next generation come through including those drafted last year, this year and next year.

Realistically the core in 4 years will likely be Nankervis, Short, D. Rioli, Hopper, Taranto, Baker, Bolton and Balta with some of the young kids like Cumberland, Ryan and those yet to be drafted coming good and some not progressing and falling off the list. Plenty to work with there provided the club nails its picks in the forthcoming draft. History shows that most sides that nail 1-2 drafts and add 3-5 quality players onto the list very quickly become contenders.

Can't stay up forever, and despite the discussions about Geelong managing to stay up the top, at the end of the day the business is about winning flags and it remains to be seen whether the Cats can win multiple flags with their approach.
 
Hawthorn, West Coast and Richmond all tried to load up for a final roll of the dice and all delayed their rebuild by a couple of years. Not saying any of them were wrong to do so, either. It really is a fine art deciding when the window is closing. But any club that wants to rebuild would want to get in before Tasmania join and the drafts become compromised. Hawks have done it, West Coast are doing it, Richmond would need to commit now.
We have been drafting the last couple years, our last trade/free agents was Lynch before Hopper & Taranto it's hard to get good picks when your near the top of the ladder.
 

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Even when you guys were winning premierships, you were never the most dominant team in the competition. You just peaked at the right time of the season. They would always capitalize on the opposition making mistakes.
I really see no difference in competitive aptitude in 2023 but it's the lack of quality which is glaringly obvious.

It is why Tom Lynch looks far and away your best player as he's usually beating any defender on a weekly basis.
Other than him, no one else stands out and what's worse, the aura you once had, has almost completely evaporated. Every club knows Richmond are on the slide and they can smell blood.

Richmond are clearly beatable for most teams now. But the same goes the other way, teams are not unbeatable for Richmond. But no team is going to remain near impossible to beat in big games for more than a few years, which we essentially were. There is a world of difference between being beatable and being uncompetitive though.

I agree Lynch is our best and most important player now. We have lots of other weapons though. Bolton, Martin, Balta to name 3 that can throw some very difficult problems at opposition teams. I just think our key positions and inside midfield is not functioning well at present for all sorts of reasons, and no teams survives that without losses. Let's see if the club resolves some of these issues as the season unfolds, it has a history of doing so in recent seasons.
 
It doesn't even matter if he is young - you don't build a club around players like Bolton no matter how good they are.

You build clubs around players like Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt, even Grimes. All those blokes are at the end and declining. Tom Lynch is the only current superstar they have left and you need 4/5 of them to win premierships.

Richmond are making the very same mistakes Hawthorn made. But the alternative is you trade players like Bolton which no one would seriously do.
Bollocks.

Richmond drafted 5 players inside the Top 30 in the 2021 draft, just a year after their 2020 flag. At what stage did the Hawks do this?

Also, Hawthorn traded out club legends Hodge, Lewis and SMitchell (as well as soon-to-be Isaac "Norm" Smith as free agent, and now Jack Gunston) to other clubs for a pittance, thus decimating their club leadership. In contrast, Richmond have rewarded the likes of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Grimes, Houli and Edwards extended contracts so as to see out their respective careers in yellow and black, thus entrenching them forever as Tiger champions to the end, and most importantly keeping their onfield leadership in-house.

In addition, Richmond have not moved on a single best-22 player to another club in the last 6 years. Butler, Higgins, Naish, CCJ, Ellis and Markov were all fringe players struggling to break into the senior team when moved on. In comparison, in the handful of years after their last flag, the Hawks traded out 1st XXII players Brad Hill, Ryan Burton and Taylor Duryea. Don't ask me about Ceglar - I'm not sure where he sat in the Hawks pecking order.

Richmond have brought in one single free agent - a superstar who has been worth every single penny and some. Neither the 2019 or the 2020 premiership cups would be at Tigerland if it were not for the recruitment of Tom Lynch. Meanwhile the Hawks soaked up valuable salary cap on really poor free agent (or late pick) choices Tom Scully, Tyrone Vickery, Darren Minchington, Tom Phillips and Jon Patton. You get a credit for Henderson - he was a fine recruit.

Bringing in Hopper and Taranto for a late-1st, an unknown-1st and an early-2nd rounder is not the equivalent of emptying your trade cupboard on the likes of Impey, O'Meara, TMitchell and Scrimshaw.

Richmond have made some mistakes, but they're definitely not the same mistakes Hawthorn have made.
 
The Richmond games I've watched I've thought exactly the same thing. Neither are superstars, but they aren't spuds either. They're good solid players, and they're playing good solid games.

The problems from the view of a neutral are no forward line, that is while Lynch is out and if Riewoldt isn't contributing (and he's been solid this year until yesterday). When you do get it forward your conversion is ordinary. Cumberland looks like he's improved a lot, but whoever taught him the stupid sidestep in his set shot routine should be flung off a bridge. It's pretty obvious there's a lot to like about Ryan, Clarke, Cumberland, Young, and Miller at the very least. But they're raw, so you'll get mistakes.

You need Bolton firing too. I reckon he's slipped back to being more flashy and less grunt. He makes a massive difference in ball use, and he kicks goals. Him being out of sorts hasn't helped either. I've got no animosity towards Cotchin and I get that 300 is a big deal, but he really shouldn't be out there now. I suppose every club does it these days.
Great post mate, dangerously rational.
 
Geelong do still have 4 superstars fit and firing - Danger, Hawkins, Cameron and Stewart.

The mistake in Richmond getting Taranto and Hopper is not that they are not good players. They are. It is that Richmond spent assets to get them and those assets maybe could have got the superstars they need to replace.

Holding the draft picks is not a guarantee, but we know Taranto and Hopper are not superstars.

The reason Richmond made this mistake is they still have Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt and Lynch and legitimately thought they were still contending. But they are not - Cotchin, Dusty and Riewoldt are all massively down on output - which is perfectly normal given the phase of their careers.
But that's a future problem, and a relatively distant one at that.

There's been all sorts of hypotheses why, but the recruitment of Taranto and Hopper certainly does not explain why Richmond are struggling at present.
 
One of the biggest issues is Dimma is back to his old game of trying to force a gameplan on players that can't execute it. The bomb it long inside 50 gameplan works when you have a young Riewoldt or Lynch being competitive in the air and with at least 2 or 3 small forwards buzzing around the drop zone. But when you have 1 small forward who is arguably rocking up to preseason unfit and another one who is basically just a less talented version of Jake King (and that is saying something), the plan has to change.

Also running a game off interception works wonders when you have Astbury, Grimes, Broad and Vlastuin in form in their mid to late 20s but now it is just playing Russian roulette with all bar 1 chamber loaded.
 
Bringing in Hopper and Taranto for a late-1st, an unknown-1st and an early-2nd rounder is not the equivalent of emptying your trade cupboard on the likes of Impey, O'Meara, TMitchell and Scrimshaw.

I think you’re forgetting a pick there

Taranto traded for 12 (Hewett) + 19 (Gruzewksi)

Hopper traded for F1 (4-12?) + 31 (McMullin)
 
I think you’re forgetting a pick there

Taranto traded for 12 (Hewett) + 19 (Gruzewksi)

Hopper traded for F1 (4-12?) + 31 (McMullin)
Yep, that looks right.

For Taranto…

From Richmond’s POV it was 14 (Hewett was the pick here and I liked him at this spot as well) and the pick we got for CCJ. I’m ok with this. Even if we discounted the CCJ factor and added Gruzewski instead, I think we did well here. He’d be top 3 in our B&F this year.

From GWS view it was pick 22 (Gruzewski) and Cadman for pick 4 and Taranto. GWS fans and neutrals can assess that one. Personally I think it’s a high price to pay for a player that was likely to be there at 4, but they wanted to make sure they got him, I spose.

The Hopper one will be judged on our finishing position this year. Pick 34 last year is mid range, but we also got 49 (Kaleb Smith) and 55 (Steely Green), so that one really balances out.

The real cost is the potential top ten pick this year.

It seems like this trade is being assessed on this one future first and much media hysteria is based on the draft pick we give GWS on our current ladder position right now. We will wait and see where it lands.

I’m liking what I see from our two guys.

Let’s see how the alternatives develop before we declare them sure fire hits over the proven performers.
 
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I think you’re forgetting a pick there

Taranto traded for 12 (Hewett) + 19 (Gruzewksi)

Hopper traded for F1 (4-12?) + 31 (McMullin)

That's not strictly correct either though.

Taranto was traded for picks that ended up at picks 14 and 22.

GWS gave Hopper and picks that ended up at 49(Kaleb Smith) and 55(Steely Green) for the Richmond 2023 1st rounder(as yet undetermined it is unlikely to be pick anything like pick 4) + a pick that ended up at 34.

It was a far trade, all things considered. GWS desperately needed to clear cap space and Richmond desperately needed big mature mids. As ever with future picks being traded there is a risk the pick will end up above or below its expected value. GWS look like getting the better of that risk at this stage, but there is a long way to go.

Either club could end up better or worse overall in the longer run from these trades, but nobody could say either club were foolish to effect the trades at the time they were made.
 
That's not strictly correct either though.

Taranto was traded for picks that ended up at picks 14 and 22.

GWS gave Hopper and picks that ended up at 49(Kaleb Smith) and 55(Steely Green) for the Richmond 2023 1st rounder(as yet undetermined it is unlikely to be pick anything like pick 4) + a pick that ended up at 34.

It was a far trade, all things considered. GWS desperately needed to clear cap space and Richmond desperately needed big mature mids. As ever with future picks being traded there is a risk the pick will end up above or below its expected value. GWS look like getting the better of that risk at this stage, but there is a long way to go.

Either club could end up better or worse overall in the longer run from these trades, but nobody could say either club were foolish to effect the trades at the time they were made.

Hewett, Gruzewski and McMullin are the players that were recruited with the traded selections.

It is correct.

I did not include the 4th rounders perhaps I should have.
 
Yep, that looks right.

For Taranto…

From Richmond’s POV it was 14 (Hewett was the pick here and I liked him at this spot as well) and the pick we got for CCJ. I’m ok with this. Even if we discounted the CCJ factor and added Gruzewski instead, I think we did well here. He’d be top 3 in our B&F this year.

From GWS view it was pick 22 (Gruzewski) and Cadman for pick 4 and Taranto. GWS fans and neutrals can assess that one. Personally I think it’s a high price to pay for a player that was likely to be there at 4, but they wanted to make sure they got him, I spose.

The Hopper one will be judged on our finishing position this year. Pick 34 last year is mid range, but we also got 49 (Kaleb Smith) and 55 (Steely Green), so that one really balances out.

The real cost is the potential top ten pick this year.

It seems like this trade is being assessed on this one future first and much media hysteria is based on the draft pick we give GWS on our current ladder position right now. We will wait and see where it lands.

I’m liking what I see from our two guys.

Let’s see how the alternatives develop before we declare them sure fire hits over the proven performers.

I like the Taranto trade and I think he is exactly what Richmond needed. A year younger and seems more durable? I’m not sure what the numbers say exactly.

I dislike the Hopper trade and I think Richmond would need to finish at least top 6 to make it worthwhile. He is a good but not great player. Not sure Richmond are even playing him to his strengths at the moment but we’ll see.
 

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Richmond - time for a rebuild?

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