Mega Thread The Father-Son Mega thread - 2019

[Slick]

Has there been a situation where a kid has tested really well but turned out to be a disappointment after the draft?

Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls

 

[SuperSic]

There is always a chance that we pass on Finn, none of us thought we’d pass on Mozzie but we did.

This is how I assume the recruiters will look at the situation:
- they will have Finn ranked somewhere on their draft board, let’s say 17 for example
- logically, they will therefore match a bid on Finn anywhere from pick 17 (or equivalent) onwards, anything higher would be reaching to get him.
- So if a bid comes at 13 (1212 points) then our discount will bring that down to 970 points which is equivalent to pick 18. Hence it would be reasonable to match that bid as it falls after the pick 17 we rate him.
- but if a bid comes at pick 10 (1395 points) then the discount brings it out to 1116 which equates to pick 14, meaning we would be reaching to take him.
- as we showed last year, we will not reach just to take a player, because it is robbing us of the opportunity to take other players that we think are more valuable.

I really want Finn at Hawthorn, I rate the kid highly. However if you know the HFC like I do then we will look at this situation as objectively as every other, meaning we will not commit 100% to taking him before we know the price.

 

[burton5]

There is always a chance that we pass on Finn, none of us thought we’d pass on Mozzie but we did.

This is how I assume the recruiters will look at the situation:
- they will have Finn ranked somewhere on their draft board, let’s say 17 for example
- logically, they will therefore match a bid on Finn anywhere from pick 17 (or equivalent) onwards, anything higher would be reaching to get him.
- So if a bid comes at 13 (1212 points) then our discount will bring that down to 970 points which is equivalent to pick 18. Hence it would be reasonable to match that bid as it falls after the pick 17 we rate him.
- but if a bid comes at pick 10 (1395 points) then the discount brings it out to 1116 which equates to pick 14, meaning we would be reaching to take him.
- as we showed last year, we will not reach just to take a player, because it is robbing us of the opportunity to take other players that we think are more valuable.

I really want Finn at Hawthorn, I rate the kid highly. However if you know the HFC like I do then we will look at this situation as objectively as every other, meaning we will not commit 100% to taking him before we know the price.

I agree with you in us not having a sense of romanticism when picking up kids (E.g Mozzie as you noted).

I think the most likely scenario for how we'll approach this draft is that we'll look to trade our first out for an established elite player to not risk Finn getting bid on before our first - if we can't do that we'll look to move up into the top 10 of the draft with the hope of being able to snag a Deven Robertson type before Finn is bid on using multiple 20/30's picks to match him. Don't see a situation where we don't pick him up unless we fail to trade up in the draft/grab an elite player with our first pick.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I'm not sold on Finn. As a player Finn is difficult to get excited about. He is an inside mid, but he is not a grunt inside mid, not powerful, nor is he an accumulator, and he hasn't many qualities as a player on the outside. The lack of power/size, lack of speed, lack of high quality disposal, makes him sort of fall in between all catagories of midfielder. I could see him being a `hard working' mid, a B+ type.

I can see him slipping in the draft, and hopefully the Hawks get him with a discount outside the top 30. I love to get father sons and i watched his dad.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

I'm not sold on Finn. As a player Finn is difficult to get excited about. He is an inside mid, but he is not a grunt inside mid, not powerful, nor is he an accumulator, and he hasn't many qualities as a player on the outside. The lack of power/size, lack of speed, lack of high quality disposal, makes him sort of fall in between all catagories of midfielder. I could see him being a `hard working' mid, a B+ type.

I can see him slipping in the draft, and hopefully the Hawks get him with a discount outside the top 30. I love to get father sons and i watched his dad.

If you are hoping to snare Finn but worried that others may force us to bid early and use pick 11 you are doing this right.

Personally I'd just be more direct.

Any numbnuts recruiters of teams other than Hawthorn reading big footy Finn is no good, don't touch him with a ten foot pole.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

I don't see a scenario where a club doesn't bid on Finn and force us to go earlier than planned. Its a low risk move by other clubs, if Hawks don't match they still get a kid that can play and has shown upside, now after combine results its not a hard sell to anyone.
Feel if we don't move up in the draft we get bent on this one.

 

[beta_condition]

I don't see a scenario where a club doesn't bid on Finn and force us to go earlier than planned. Its a low risk move by other clubs, if Hawks don't match they still get a kid that can play and has shown upside, now after combine results its not a hard sell to anyone.
Feel if we don't move up in the draft we get bent on this one.

Take the tin foil hat off, what do other clubs have to gain from bidding on Finn before us? No club is going to gamble a top ten pick simply to play mind games with Hawthorn.

 

[Nathan Detroit]

Take the tin foil hat off, what do other clubs have to gain from bidding on Finn before us? No club is going to gamble a top ten pick simply to play mind games with Hawthorn.

I'd go a step further and say that would actually be of benefit to the HFC. It pushes an actual top 10 pick out to 11 (provided Finn doesn't fall into that top 10 group).

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Take the tin foil hat off, what do other clubs have to gain from bidding on Finn before us? No club is going to gamble a top ten pick simply to play mind games with Hawthorn.

Oh geezbus mate, clubs that end up with multiple top end picks before our possible pick at Finn could and would take a swing at him.

It's a no risk spanner in the works play unlike scums Mozzie fist pump play last year.

Now if I said that a club would force us to go early on a dud just to jerk us around then your tin hat jibe might hold some weight but I haven't stated that so

Lets see who has what picks come draft night and see what happens.

 

[TAITA]

Take the tin foil hat off, what do other clubs have to gain from bidding on Finn before us? No club is going to gamble a top ten pick simply to play mind games with Hawthorn.

You overestimate the power of the gears spinning in Dodo's noggin.

 

[kazzooka]

Lethal is still on the Lions board so isn't exactly going to publicly cheerlead Hawthorn while in that role.

 

[Steven Tyler]

Oh geezbus mate, clubs that end up with multiple top end picks before our possible pick at Finn could and would take a swing at him.

It's a no risk spanner in the works play unlike scums Mozzie fist pump play last year.

Now if I said that a club would force us to go early on a dud just to jerk us around then your tin hat jibe might hold some weight but I haven't stated that so

Lets see who has what picks come draft night and see what happens.

Totally agree on anyone with 2 first round picks taking a bid on Finn

That’s why clubs like Essendon (Daniher/Fantasia) or Geelong (Kelly) are a risk

Hopefully we upgrade pick 11 by trading it and a player, or we simply trade pick 11 for a very good player

 

[flinchfree]

Totally agree on anyone with 2 first round picks taking a bid on Finn

That’s why clubs like Essendon (Daniher/Fantasia) or Geelong (Kelly) are a risk

Hopefully we upgrade pick 11 by trading it and a player, or we simply trade pick 11 for a very good player

They're not going to take a 'flyer' on a player they hope might prove to be a top 10 player, over one they believe has shown they already are. Will have diddly squat to do with the HFC and f/s.
If someone rates Finn better than everyone after pick 10 they'll take him, but not because they've lucked in to 2 top 10 picks, which is absolute gold to a club trying to get better. They will pick the 2 best players at their picks, and who they evaluate will be best in the long run.
Reckon it's rubbish Dodoro was trying to sabotage us, just think he knows how good WE are at talent evaluation and believed we rated him that highly. So he jumped, thinking Moz was Cyril MK2.
Giant yucks (laughs) just thinking about it.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

There is always a chance that we pass on Finn, none of us thought we’d pass on Mozzie but we did.

This is how I assume the recruiters will look at the situation:
- they will have Finn ranked somewhere on their draft board, let’s say 17 for example
- logically, they will therefore match a bid on Finn anywhere from pick 17 (or equivalent) onwards, anything higher would be reaching to get him.
- So if a bid comes at 13 (1212 points) then our discount will bring that down to 970 points which is equivalent to pick 18. Hence it would be reasonable to match that bid as it falls after the pick 17 we rate him.
- but if a bid comes at pick 10 (1395 points) then the discount brings it out to 1116 which equates to pick 14, meaning we would be reaching to take him.
- as we showed last year, we will not reach just to take a player, because it is robbing us of the opportunity to take other players that we think are more valuable.

I really want Finn at Hawthorn, I rate the kid highly. However if you know the HFC like I do then we will look at this situation as objectively as every other, meaning we will not commit 100% to taking him before we know the price.

Not sure that's how they will look at it. I would think it would more be based on what we need to give up to get him, and whether we think the players available at those picks would be better than Finn (and also if we have enough points currency to match).

With Irving we believed that there were better kids available. Harder to see that being the case with Finn as our picks will most likely be in the 40+ range and this is a shallow draft.

 

[Lickmesocks]

I'm not sold on Finn. As a player Finn is difficult to get excited about. He is an inside mid, but he is not a grunt inside mid, not powerful, nor is he an accumulator, and he hasn't many qualities as a player on the outside. The lack of power/size, lack of speed, lack of high quality disposal, makes him sort of fall in between all catagories of midfielder. I could see him being a `hard working' mid, a B+ type.

I can see him slipping in the draft, and hopefully the Hawks get him with a discount outside the top 30. I love to get father sons and i watched his dad.

ahhhhh some honesty....

 

[Turly]

ahhhhh some honesty....

Don’t rate Finn?

 

[Davo-27]

i think we should match any bid on Finn, he probably isnt in that top 10 in so far as talent, but i would still pick him as he has improved so much in the last 12 months and has more improvement in him, which is rare for 18 yr olds as they usually are already fully developed and all they need is the confidence and the mental strength to make it in the AFL, i really liked his father as a footballer and i hope that Finn can reach his potential of being a quality tall inside mid/HFF at the next level.

 

[Howe Amazing]

Improving at a rate of knots and still growing, I am sure we will match

 

[Brishawk]

ahhhhh some honesty....

Are you suggesting that anyone who rates Finn is being dishonest?

 

[HODGEYROAD]

i think we should match any bid on Finn, he probably isnt in that top 10 in so far as talent, but i would still pick him as he has improved so much in the last 12 months and has more improvement in him, which is rare for 18 yr olds as they usually are already fully developed and all they need is the confidence and the mental strength to make it in the AFL, i really liked his father as a footballer and i hope that Finn can reach his potential of being a quality tall inside mid/HFF at the next level.

Where would you rank him personally in the draft mate ? I know you want a lot of under 18s footy.

 

[Davo-27]

Where would you rank him personally in the draft mate ? I know you want a lot of under 18s footy.

i personally think theres about 12-14 top end players that i have before him and he is one of the best after that top end group, so around 14-20, thats my view, but we may have to match a pick around 10 for him with all the buzz he is getting.

 

[driftyhunter]

Are you suggesting that anyone who rates Finn is being dishonest?

Don’t be silly.. just realistic in his opinion.

 

[Hawk the Talk]

The thing about Finn that excites me outside of his obvious ability is his work ethic and hunger to get better... we’ve seen that throughout the year and his combine results have have also shown that. It’ll take him along way, especially once he hits a good AFL program at Hawthorn.

 

[Mitchell54]

The thing about Finn that excites me outside of his obvious ability is his work ethic and hunger to get better... we’ve seen that throughout the year and his combine results have have also shown that. It’ll take him along way, especially once he hits a good AFL program at Hawthorn.

You always get a solid role player at the very least from those guys with elite professionalism and work rate.

 

[KermitJagger]

i personally think theres about 12-14 top end players that i have before him and he is one of the best after that top end group, so around 14-20, thats my view, but we may have to match a pick around 10 for him with all the buzz he is getting.

I was gonna tag you for your opinion the other day but I forgot your username, good summary. I agree.

I think for the right team he will be tempting for an early pick, particularly if Sydney and Essendon have a few to throw around given their needs. Essendon need a big inside midfielder to be what they hoped Myers would be for a long time, and Sydney would love him to develop off Kennedy.