Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Lickmesocks]

R

Tom Mitchell at the end of 2022 was a better player than Barrass is now and we got minimal value in a trade. Jordan Lewis similar in 2016. Collingwood’s 2024 2nd and our 2025 2nd is a fair trade. West Coast could then look to trade for Gold Coasts 1st rounder.

It’s a great time to be a Key Back, just ask Ben Mckay and Esava.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Tom Mitchell at the end of 2022 was a better player than Barrass is now and we got minimal value in a trade. Jordan Lewis similar in 2016. Collingwood’s 2024 2nd and our 2025 2nd is a fair trade. West Coast could then look to trade for Gold Coasts 1st rounder.

Barass is an elite player in a highly coveted position. Solid, accumulating mids are a lot easier to find than top KPDs and hence less valuable.

What you've proposed above is not a fair trade and WCE would rightfully tell us to get lost. We will pay our first if Barass requests a trade and any copium otherwise is slated for disappointment.

it's the extras on top of our first that might cause angst in the deal, not the first itself

 

[HeHateMe]

Tom Mitchell at the end of 2022 was a better player than Barrass is now and we got minimal value in a trade. Jordan Lewis similar in 2016. Collingwood’s 2024 2nd and our 2025 2nd is a fair trade. West Coast could then look to trade for Gold Coasts 1st rounder.

The Jordan Lewis situation really reminds me of this Barrass situation. I can't remember was Lewis contacted as well?

 

[The Chad and I]

Tom Mitchell at the end of 2022 was a better player than Barrass is now and we got minimal value in a trade. Jordan Lewis similar in 2016. Collingwood’s 2024 2nd and our 2025 2nd is a fair trade. West Coast could then look to trade for Gold Coasts 1st rounder.

The consensus on this board seems to be he is either worth a 1st round pick plus change, or nothing.

 

[hardway]

The consensus on this board seems to be he is either worth a 1st round pick plus change, or nothing.

His age and back problems put a dampener on the 1st round pick. If there second pick was coming back I would be a little more comfortable.

 

[fairdinks]

The Jordan Lewis situation really reminds me of this Barrass situation. I can't remember was Lewis contacted as well?

the difference between Mitchell and Lewis compared to Barrass, is we pushed the first two out, so had little bargaining power. Unless the Eagles can see the benefit in clearing Barrass $'s and getting picks, the situation is not the same.

West Coast hold the better cards at present. That could change and hopefully does. If Barrass still has 3 years to go at eagles, this might be the last year they can get some value while they re-build.

Best for us is a trade for our first and WCE 3rd coming back IMO. So, a low to mid-teens pick for circa mid 40's coming back.

 

[Alex_au]

All for Barass. He would be a great mentor for McCabe.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

Barras WILL happen, the main part of the deal will be this years first round expect DGB to be involved also. As for battle we were extremely hopeful that he would sign as a free agent but as others have alluded to he will be signing an extension at the saints as early as next week.

 

[kazzooka]

And I call bullshit on the lot of them. There's no such thing as an ITK poster eight weeks before the season ends. It's all speculation and people wanting to big-note themselves.
I like reading it but I usually don't believe a word of it.

There are posters here who receive information from Hawthorn sources directly. So what they share can be seen as a good reflection of what the club believes is going to unfold.

However the club will often be wrong and things change. Often a player manager will give multiple clubs the impression that a player is committed to them. That's why you have ITKs from 2-3 clubs each year that are confident about landing the big free agent.

What's interesting is that people close to Hawthorn are saying battle is not coming now. And nothing seems to have changed when you talk to people from Stkilda and Battle's crew who believe he is going to Hawthorn.

Have we just gone all in on Barrass and decided not to pursue Battle anymore. Maybe we have Perryman locked up and feel Barrass and Perryman is a better fit, those are the 2 the club has been caught by media pursuing.

I always thought our best recruiting is like Lake when there is no rumours or speculation and day 1 of trade week they just drop the trade.

I'm sure there will be some surprises this year too.

 

[kazzooka]

Yep, you have key board warriors throwing darts so they get some weird satisfaction from bumping a post when his 2025 club is announced The truth is Battle would have signed with the Saints if he was staying so by the law of averages he is leaving. But he might be the rare exception who genuinely can’t make up his mind so will take as much time as he can to make his final decision.

Or he is playing all sides to squeeze out as much money as he can.

Could also be like Sheil who waited till trade period and then openly toured and discussed with multiple clubs to make a decision. At this stage no club can make a concrete commitment as others like Barrass pop up. Or players leave.

We were committed to getting Mumford and billy longer yet when buddy went to Sydney instead GWS swooped in on Mumford, Stkilda offered McEvoy and Longer changed his mind to go to Stkilda because he didn't want to be behind McEvoy even though he'd have been behind Mumford anyway too if original plan happened. So 8 weeks out buddy, Mumford, Longer, McEvoy and Savage were all either staying or going to different clubs then they ended up at. Buddy to Sydney was set in stone but well kept secret.

 

[earthworms]

There are posters here who receive information from Hawthorn sources directly. So what they share can be seen as a good reflection of what the club believes is going to unfold.

However the club will often be wrong and things change. Often a player manager will give multiple clubs the impression that a player is committed to them. That's why you have ITKs from 2-3 clubs each year that are confident about landing the big free agent.

What's interesting is that people close to Hawthorn are saying battle is not coming now. And nothing seems to have changed when you talk to people from Stkilda and Battle's crew who believe he is going to Hawthorn.

Have we just gone all in on Barrass and decided not to pursue Battle anymore. Maybe we have Perryman locked up and feel Barrass and Perryman is a better fit, those are the 2 the club has been caught by media pursuing.

I always thought our best recruiting is like Lake when there is no rumours or speculation and day 1 of trade week they just drop the trade.

I'm sure there will be some surprises this year too.

Most recent mail around the league was that perryman would be staying at gws. His girlfriend plays for the gws netball team and he grew up in sydney

 

[kazzooka]

I think this media narrative about our back 6 being vulnerable when our midfield doesn't defend ball movement is a bit misleading.

ALL teams back 6 are vulnerable to being exposed when their midfields don't defend ball movement. The opposition forward craft and delivery inside 50 are also factors, but all things being good and equal and even the best back 6 are going to be up against it when the ball can quickly be moved inside 50.

What I reckon has happened to create this narrative is that "stats gurus" like David King just look at the season long stats and draw their conclusion from that. The issue with this is that we were so bad at defending ball movement in the first month or so of the season that it completely tanked our rating in the related stat (goals per inside 50) and even though this stat has improved for us since our winning form run, it's been slow to recover.

Across the entire 2024 season (to end of round 20) we are 5th worst, allowing 24.1% of inside 50's to be converted to goals. But the 1.6 percentage point difference between us and the next worst in Essendon is roughly the same difference between us and Adelaide who are 6th best. And across the entire season we're about on par with Carlton and Brisbane who have Weitering and Andrews.

View attachment 2065974

Now compare the same stat across the last 5 games (I'd like to have done since round 8 but this website just allows all or last 5) and we are top 4 for preventing a goal when conceding an inside 50.

View attachment 2065988

Remember the criticism is that if a team can get inside 50 against us then we are vulnerable. It supposes that even if a weaker team has limited inside 50's because our defending of ball movement is strong that they should still convert a goal at a higher rate. The numbers don't appear to support that.

So why target Battle and Barrass? Simple. Depth and experience in key positions, and freeing up players with great attacking attributes to do more of that.

This argument was used since 2008 for us. That's the nature of zone defence. We'd lock the ball in our forward half and probably save 15-20 inside 50s. So when they break through the zone and get an inside 50 it's usually a walk in goal.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

the difference between Mitchell and Lewis compared to Barrass, is we pushed the first two out, so had little bargaining power. Unless the Eagles can see the benefit in clearing Barrass $'s and getting picks, the situation is not the same.

West Coast hold the better cards at present. That could change and hopefully does. If Barrass still has 3 years to go at eagles, this might be the last year they can get some value while they re-build.

Best for us is a trade for our first and WCE 3rd coming back IMO. So, a low to mid-teens pick for circa mid 40's coming back.

Barrass is clearly being pushed out. A bit to play out here

 

[RCAB]

All the talk about trading first round picks for established players gave me the idea for a quick bit of analysis. I call it “Objective returns on first round picks: A draft and trade comparison from 2010 - 2018”. This is a comparison of where a solitary player has been dealt for either a single first round pick, or a combination of picks and “steak knife” players including a first rounder, excluding any players dealt as part of a complex multi club trades where the value of the 1st round pick or player is mitigated by other picks or players in the rotation.

The purpose of this is to judge the difference in return between first round picks when dealt for established players or taken to the draft. As not every pick has been traded for a player in that time period, the analysis will only cover those picks which have been traded as part of a player in the circumstances outlined above.

Here is the list of picks that have been dealt for a player in trade, the average of games played by players received for those picks, and the total amount of AA selections and Brownlow wins amongst those players:

Pick	Times Traded	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	1​	91​	0​	0​
6​	4​	96​	5​	2​
7​	1​	94​	0​	0​
9​	2​	129​	5​	1​
10​	3​	123​	2​	0​
12​	2​	82​	2​	0​
14​	2​	94​	2​	1​
15​	3​	64​	0​	0​
16​	1​	2​	0​	0​
17​	2​	104​	1​	0​
18​	3​	83​	0​	0​
Total	24​	92​	17​	4​

A total of 24 picks have been dealt in return for players, with an average return of 92 games played, 17 total AA selections at .7 selections per player and 4 Brownlow wins.

Pick	Times Selected	Average Games Played	Total AA Selections	Total Brownlow Wins
2​	9​	133​	6​	0​
6​	9​	125​	6​	0​
7​	9​	141​	2​	1​
9​	9​	148​	2​	0​
10​	9​	81​	2​	0​
12​	9​	80​	4​	0​
14​	9​	130​	2​	0​
15​	9​	106​	0​	0​
16​	9​	89​	0​	0​
17​	9​	92​	0​	0​
18​	9​	120​	2​	0​
Total	99​	113​	26​	1​

A total of 99 players have been selected using picks matching those dealt in trades, with an average return of 113 games played, 26 total AA selections at .26 selections per player and 1 Brownlow win.

On a pure numbers basis, though on average you will get 21 games less from players acquired in trade, you're 2.7x more likely to receive an All Australian jumper from players traded in with first round picks, and 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.

There's no particular reason outside of laziness that I decided to drag in 2010 - 2018, if I could have been bothered I would have gone further out but it was getting too annoying and I gave up. I started at 2018 as it seemed a reasonable amount of time to allow for draftees to get embedded.

Conclusion - trading a late first ain't that serious, and you're more likely to get better individual seasons out of the traded player anyway which is the goal. The end.

What is this selective yearly analysis? Yes I read it and understood and why you have omitted certain picks, but you've omitted them because they weren't traded (is this 100% accurate?)

You've omitted pick 13 and 19 for starters (so these where never traded, apparently) which include Isaac Smith, Patrick Cripps, Tim English, Taylor Adams, Isaac Quaynor, Blake Acres, Ryan Burton, and Liam Stocker in that selected period of 2010-2018.

In 2019 picks 13 and 19 were Will Day and SDK.

Also I don't understand how you came up with the stat: 16.5x more likely to receive a Brownlow medal over that 8 season period.

 

[Platten44]

The consensus on this board seems to be he is either worth a 1st round pick plus change, or nothing.

As it would have been for Jordan Lewis if there had have been trade talk in July 2016. Similar for Tom Mitchell.

West Coast need to play Harry Edwards and develop young talls. Having both Barrass and McGovern just means in three years time they will be in more strife.

 

[HeHateMe]

the difference between Mitchell and Lewis compared to Barrass, is we pushed the first two out, so had little bargaining power. Unless the Eagles can see the benefit in clearing Barrass $'s and getting picks, the situation is not the same.

West Coast hold the better cards at present. That could change and hopefully does. If Barrass still has 3 years to go at eagles, this might be the last year they can get some value while they re-build.

Best for us is a trade for our first and WCE 3rd coming back IMO. So, a low to mid-teens pick for circa mid 40's coming back.

It seems like in a way they are pushing Barrass out. It has some similarities to the Lewis situation.

 

[DEECEE]

Let's just remember, we were prepared to pay Esava big money on a 5 year deal. Barass is a massive upgrade on that dud

Sent from my SM-S901E using Tapatalk

 

[bindas12]

Let's just remember, we were prepared to pay Esava big money on a 5 year deal. Barass is a massive upgrade on that dud

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Esava is not a dud. He’s got a lot of good attributes. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have excelled under our coaching and development teams.

 

[H00t]

Esava is not a dud. He’s got a lot of good attributes. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have excelled under our coaching and development teams.

He’s a good contested mark but struggles with all the other parts of the game.

Geelong had the perfect defensive system for him to thrive in and he still struggled. He’d be asked to do more not less given how we press up the field in our team.

 

[satan1]

Barrass no doubt would be a great addition, longevity concerns aside. Couldn't care if we gave our first/dgb. Plenty of depth in this draft.

I just hope WCE don't f us about the whole trade period like they usually do.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Barrass no doubt would be a great addition, longevity concerns aside. Couldn't care if we gave our first/dgb. Plenty of depth in this draft.

I just hope WCE don't f us about the whole trade period like they usually do.

Get ready for day 1…..

“The eagles are demanding 2 first round picks for Barrass and will not trade him unless they are satisfied”.

Bookmark it.

 

[Ashman23]

Out : J Battle

In : H Perryman

 

[Bugs1977]

His age and back problems put a dampener on the 1st round pick. If there second pick was coming back I would be a little more comfortable.

Agreed. We could even send a F3 back as well. Something like:

Hawks give: 2024 1st + F3*
Eagles give: Barrass + 2024 2nd

I respect that Barrass is a quality player still but the fact remains that his longevity is something that has huge a concern due to the back injury. Without the injury I wouldn't blink twice in giving up our 1st + 2nd rounder.

*On the deal proposed above we could even throw in DGB as a sweetener (don't shoot me LOL)

 

[Lickmesocks]

Out : J Battle

In : H Perryman

The Battle is over?

 

[HawthornHawk]

Does anyone think that we could offer nexts years first round pick as part of the Barrass deal and retain this years first as the draft pool is reportedly very strong this year.

Is it strong or is it just very even? If there are no absolute stand outs I would have thought it's a weaker draft