Preview R20: Changes vs. Hawthorn

[Bazz_27]

Our rebuild hasn't been extensive? What planet are you on?

Obviously needs to google our list at the end of 2019. Last count we've lost about 2/3rds of our list since then

 

[bmac84]

Do you accept that he took over when the team was at the nadir?
Do you accept that the club did a ground-up rebuild, starting around the same time as his appointment?
Do you accept that we've had one of the youngest and least experienced team lists ever since his appointment?
Do you accept that there's a strong correllation between age/experience and the number of games won?

Put simply, the club has not yet achieved the required conditions to allow Nicks to have a chance of succeeding.

I think any reasonable supporter understands those 4 points. But Nicks has repeatedly demonstrated poor decision making in terms of team selection (persisting with poorly performing veterans for too long, putting too many games into failed players, not playing kids sooner) and the gameplan has clearly gone backwards this year.

What has Nicks shown that any other coach couldn't have achieved?

And accepting 7 years for a rebuild is just ridiculous.

 

[El Doederino]

People on this board will post about guys like Cook having had enough opportunity- they used to say the same thing about Fog- while ignoring the guaranteed selections of guys like Murphy and Jones.

No one on here ignores the guaranteed selections of guys like Murphy and Jones

 

[Bazz_27]

The evidence suggests experience actually makes us worse under Nicks

2020 - 13th most experience (57.8 average games played) - 3 wins (18th)
2021 - 16th (54.2) - 7 wins (15th)
2022 - 18th (45.6) - 8 wins (14th)
2023 - 17th (51.7) - 11 wins (10th)
2024 - 15th (60.2) - 7 wins so far (14th so far)

Nicks two best seasons are the two with the least experience on the list

Done well to come to that conclusion. Lucky you didn't let your bias get in the way of interpreting that data

 

[Bazz_27]

No one on here ignores the guaranteed selections of guys like Murphy and Jones

At thier best these guys have some value to the team (most likely depth after this season). Murphy hasn't been at his best this year though and should've been dropped multiple times

 

[cmndstab]

Even if you accept a rebuild takes 7 years, surely by year 5 you expect to be playing finals again. Year 7 should be when you're hoisting the cup, not just starting to compete again.

 

[Brett Cummings]

Just because you disagree with the decisions does not mean that they don't make sense. You have an extremely blinkered perspective.

So fogarty is not very good and nicks is logical. As if we need reminding to never take you seriously.

 

[El Doederino]

Rebuilds typically take 7 years, at least, especially when they've been as extensive as ours.

I know that supporters tend to look at things from a fairly blinkered perspective. "I want success NOW!". Clubs realise that the life cycle of a team list is much longer, and it's all about building a team for success in the mid-long term.

In a rebuild, where you are going to make a lot of mistakes and try things which won't work, what makes you think the selection of head coach is one that is immune to this?

 

[Vader]

I think any reasonable supporter understands those 4 points. But Nicks has repeatedly demonstrated poor decision making in terms of team selection (persisting with poorly performing veterans for too long, putting too many games into failed players, not playing kids sooner) and the gameplan has clearly gone backwards this year.

Once again, this is a matter of perspective. He has a LOT more information available to him, particularly about where the kids are at. I agree that Murphy & Smith should have been shuffled out by now, but I'm not seeing a whole lot of alternatives running around in the SANFL.

What has Nicks shown that any other coach couldn't have achieved?

What has Nicks failed to achieve, that a different coach could have achieved?

I'd point to North Melbourne, who hit the bottom of the pile at the same time we did. We've come a hell of a lot further than they have, in the same period of time. They're coached by one of the all-time greats, in Alastair Clarkson, yet they've been rooted to the bottom-2 for this entire time.

And accepting 7 years for a rebuild is just ridiculous.

No, 7 years (minimum) is the reality, when dealing with rebuilds and team life-cycles, particularly when the rebuild is as extensive as ours was.

 

[Vader]

Even if you accept a rebuild takes 7 years, surely by year 5 you expect to be playing finals again. Year 7 should be when you're hoisting the cup, not just starting to compete again.

No... it's 7 years to start playing finals again.

There's a strong argument that we were only 1-2 umpire blunders away from making the finals in 2023 (Dawson's decapitation in the Collingwood game, Mr Magoo behind the sticks in the Swans game).

Progress is not always linear. We retained a core of experienced players, and surrounded them with a massive group of youngsters. Things were improving year-on-year, as those kids gained age/experience. We're now hitting the point where the experienced players are hitting the end - Sloane is already retired, Smith has fallen off a cliff, Walker's body is failing, and Laird is only playing at 80% of his former capacity. This is a year where we go backwards, until the organic development of the youth covers the lost output from the departed/declining veterans.

 

[bmac84]

I'd point to North Melbourne, who hit the bottom of the pile at the same time we did. We've come a hell of a lot further than they have, in the same period of time.

So it's a pass for old Nicksy cos as least we're better than the worst team in modern history. Sweet fancy moses lift your expectations mate.

 

[Bazz_27]

Even if you accept a rebuild takes 7 years, surely by year 5 you expect to be playing finals again. Year 7 should be when you're hoisting the cup, not just starting to compete again.

The expectation was to play finals this year, puts Nicks under pressure now. No finals next year and that's it imo. I'm a fan of his or at least not someone who thinks he is useless but it would have to take something pretty extraordinary to happen for us to miss finals and he stays on

 

[OccamsRazorRay]

Well there goes my post...

 

[Pugsley]

I think I’m done, cya guys, has been enjoyable for 15 years but getting quite sick and tired of the toxic nature of this board. Impossible to have any sort of reasonable debate without people trying to point score. Might be back later, but doubt it.

Alias incoming.

 

[Vader]

So it's a pass for old Nicksy cos as least we're better than the worst team in modern history. Sweet fancy moses lift your expectations mate.

Norf are coached by Clarkson - one of the all-time greats, yet they haven't made it out of the bottom-2 in years.

What I'm saying is that you severely underestimate how much impact a major ground-up rebuild has on the ability to win games, and how long a major ground-up rebuild takes to complete (to the point where the team is a consistent finals contender again).

 

[GROTTO]

Alias incoming.

Speaking of which I wonder what Alex's new one is?

 

[Pugsley]

Speaking of which I wonder what Alex's new one is?

OceansRazorRay.

 

[Bazz_27]

North get rid of coaches when they aren't up to it. If clarko doesnt make finals for 5 years he's gone too.

Getting a new coach doesn't always equal success. Bomber Thompson & Damien Hardwick are great examples of that. Nicks probably not in their league but hasn't had the soldiers either really.

North have been through many coaches for the same result. Destabilising the club in the process

 

[spenze]

Our rebuild hasn't been extensive? What planet are you on?

Stop trolling

You said a rebuild takes 7 years, ours hasn’t last year half way through the season the club said it was done.

We have rewarded senior players with eye watering contracts that were essentially a pension payment instead of using that place in the squad to bring someone else in.

We have done a sugar free rebuild with a coach who has always. Patched with one eye on job security.

Let’s not pretend it has been anything but that

 

[Apsaalooke]

Not everyone is a Max or a Soligo, I can appreciate that.

Curtin just seems a long way from the type of footballer Nicks and the AFC prioritise though. I'm not sure he's a good fit here.

Those who negotiated to get Curtin worked hard to do so and should be given credit for landing a prized recruit that every other team would love to have.

Maybe Nicks is not the good fit.

 

[1970crow]

Ha ha - its more the fact that someone posted something positive about FOG learning something from Tex - and you had to make it into a negative.

You have a narrative and you stick to it like glue.



Dangerous.

The more you get out in the world the more you realize that positions of power aren't always about competence.

So it’s not, “some movement from my original post”. It’s entirely consistent with my posting?

 

[AFC979810]

So it’s not, “some movement from my original post”. It’s entirely consistent with my posting?

Incorrect.

The original positive comment was based around Tex's leadership. You replied a negative comment about how Fog just learned how to be second fiddle.

Its a pretty negative shitty comment about Tex's leadership.

You then moved the conversation from Tex's leadership to the statement/question "but do you genuinely believe that there’s no structure and system to our forward line?"

Its a pretty big move from a question about a players leadership to my thoughts on the structures and systems of our forward line.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Would be pretty demotivating to arguably be the best performer this past month of SANFL, have the club’s best three midfielders all out with injury and still not crack the team.

Not to mention the misuse of him for the opening months of the season.

 

[Trigger13]

Those who negotiated to get Curtin worked hard to do so and should be given credit for landing a prized recruit that every other team would love to have.

Maybe Nicks is not the good fit.

Or maybe Dan is like the majority of first round picks through history. A bust.

Not saying he is. But history says only a handful of first rounders go on to meet expectations given to them at draft time.

My guess though is that nicks is the bust.

 

[kirky]

Obviously needs to google our list at the end of 2019. Last count we've lost about 2/3rds of our list since then

As at the end of 2019, we had 45 players on our list of which 16 remain (inc Sloane) so correctly around only 1/3 of our list remain.

Now the disappointing part of those 16 inc the likes of Smith, Jones, McHenry and Murphy. Then we have Strachan.

Others are - Crouch, Laird, Walker, O’Brien, Himmelberg, Fogarty, Scholl, Hamill, Butts and Milera.