- Apr 17, 2007
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An easier draw next season would definitely help matters.On the bright side, we made the Grand Final the next season last time we lost an Elimination Final by a kick
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Autopsy Blew our chances against Carlton
- Thread starter Heeney2Franklin
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- Apr 17, 2007
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Completely ruined our structure and we had to rejig our seasons plan. Prior to both McCartins going down in the Port game we looked fine.
I posted the below post in the lead-up to the Carlton game (the part in italics below), based on our goal scoring stats against top 8 sides.
A couple of you laughed at the effort, but that's cool. It was a statistical look at our goal scoring leading into finals. To see where our goals are likely to come from. But also to use as a post-mortem post finals.
So the likely scoring range I had was 10-12 goals with a lower bound of 7. We obviously lost, so no surprise we missed the 10-12 scoring range with 9 (poor conversion playing some part in that).
The key take-aways for me were:
1. Papley & Heeney went goalless. Both have kicked 1-2 goals regularly throughout the season. Papley only going goalless once all season. Heeney 7 times, but only held goalless twice in the last 10 rounds of the season. Only in round 24 did neither register a goal, and Papley was out injured. This is where Carlton won the game imo, keeping our top 2 goal scorers over the last 10 weeks goalless.
2. The talls performed without a huge amount of supply. 2-3 goals was expected, Hydra managed 4 goals (with McLean kicking one with 20 seconds left). McDonald locking in 2nd place goal scorer (incl. Finals) playing 20 of 24 games. Hopefully a sign of good things to come in 2024.
3. 1-2 expected from Hayward & Wicks, Hayward kicking the 1
4. 1-3 expected from Gulden, Chad, McInerney. Gulden with 2 beauties!!
5. 2-3 goals expected from the others - Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely. Parker moved up forward and kicked the two.
Summary: apart from getting maximum expected output from our talls, Heeney & Papley failed to hit the scoreboard and all other avenues to goal scored on the lower end of expectations. Carlton smashed us in contested footy for most of the match, so no surprise that we weren't able to put enough goals on the board. Part of the reason why Papley and Heeney scored less than expected was that they played more time in the mids to account for Parker playing up forward. In saying that, it was a bit of a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul because Parker kicked the 2 goals but Mills, Rowbottom and Campbell all played negating / defensive roles. So rather than generating goals from that group, Parker kicked the 2 goals and the rest had their hands full containing Carlton's midfield.
original post - gotheswannies
Looking at the stats, and our potential scoring power throughout finals, Iāve come up with the following.
Expectations in finals:
1-2 goals from Papley, hopefully 2
1-2 goals from Heeney (as above, hopefully he can kick 2)
2-3 goals from our talls (McLean, Mcdonald & Amartey), stats suggest 2 goals would be the norm.
1-2 goals from Hayward & Wicks
1-3 Goals from Gulden, Chad & JMac. 1-2 goals realistic
We run at about 70% goals scored from our top 10 so would expect 2-3 goals from the others. Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely (30-40% chance of scoring).
Others ā goals scored throughout the whole season:
In finals-like games where weāve scored 9-13 goals (9 games), our contribution from those outside the top 10 scorers looks a little more like this:
If we get a goal from anyone outside the list, itās a bonus, and probably a sign weāre dominating the opposition.
Summary:
Upper expectation: 15 goals
Lower expectation: 7 goals
Likely scoring: 10-12 goals
A couple of you laughed at the effort, but that's cool. It was a statistical look at our goal scoring leading into finals. To see where our goals are likely to come from. But also to use as a post-mortem post finals.
So the likely scoring range I had was 10-12 goals with a lower bound of 7. We obviously lost, so no surprise we missed the 10-12 scoring range with 9 (poor conversion playing some part in that).
The key take-aways for me were:
1. Papley & Heeney went goalless. Both have kicked 1-2 goals regularly throughout the season. Papley only going goalless once all season. Heeney 7 times, but only held goalless twice in the last 10 rounds of the season. Only in round 24 did neither register a goal, and Papley was out injured. This is where Carlton won the game imo, keeping our top 2 goal scorers over the last 10 weeks goalless.
2. The talls performed without a huge amount of supply. 2-3 goals was expected, Hydra managed 4 goals (with McLean kicking one with 20 seconds left). McDonald locking in 2nd place goal scorer (incl. Finals) playing 20 of 24 games. Hopefully a sign of good things to come in 2024.
3. 1-2 expected from Hayward & Wicks, Hayward kicking the 1
4. 1-3 expected from Gulden, Chad, McInerney. Gulden with 2 beauties!!
5. 2-3 goals expected from the others - Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely. Parker moved up forward and kicked the two.
Summary: apart from getting maximum expected output from our talls, Heeney & Papley failed to hit the scoreboard and all other avenues to goal scored on the lower end of expectations. Carlton smashed us in contested footy for most of the match, so no surprise that we weren't able to put enough goals on the board. Part of the reason why Papley and Heeney scored less than expected was that they played more time in the mids to account for Parker playing up forward. In saying that, it was a bit of a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul because Parker kicked the 2 goals but Mills, Rowbottom and Campbell all played negating / defensive roles. So rather than generating goals from that group, Parker kicked the 2 goals and the rest had their hands full containing Carlton's midfield.
original post - gotheswannies
Looking at the stats, and our potential scoring power throughout finals, Iāve come up with the following.
Expectations in finals:
1-2 goals from Papley, hopefully 2
1-2 goals from Heeney (as above, hopefully he can kick 2)
2-3 goals from our talls (McLean, Mcdonald & Amartey), stats suggest 2 goals would be the norm.
1-2 goals from Hayward & Wicks
1-3 Goals from Gulden, Chad & JMac. 1-2 goals realistic
We run at about 70% goals scored from our top 10 so would expect 2-3 goals from the others. Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely (30-40% chance of scoring).
Others ā goals scored throughout the whole season:
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ | Tot |
| Games | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| % chance | 13% | 22% | 26% | 17% | 22% | 100% |
In finals-like games where weāve scored 9-13 goals (9 games), our contribution from those outside the top 10 scorers looks a little more like this:
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
| Games | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| % chance | 30% | 30% | 40% | 0% |
If we get a goal from anyone outside the list, itās a bonus, and probably a sign weāre dominating the opposition.
Summary:
Upper expectation: 15 goals
Lower expectation: 7 goals
Likely scoring: 10-12 goals
I like a lot of what you say here, especially about some of the brain dead stuff. There's a fair bit more to that too that extends right through the season.
Where possibly we differ is with what the word "ruthless" means. If you mean "honest, direct, thoughtful and tough" then I agree. If you mean "nasty, derogatory and shaming" then I don't.
And evaluation of the coaches should never happen in front of the players.
That evaluation needs to happen soon while it's still fresh in people's minds and maybe it needs outside facilitators too because it can be pretty tricky and destroying a half million dollar asset is pretty poor business. Just ask Don Pyke.
That's exactly what I mean.
This is not for public viewing - inside the 4 walls and all that. No dirty laundry.
But it needs to be honest and uncomprimising. And ruthlessly so! And people need to be made accountable, without fear or favour.
A grand final team with 12 months more experience and virtually a full squad available in a final just pissed up the 2023 season against a graffiti-ridden inter -city wall.
It's unacceptable.
- Apr 17, 2007
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Big disappointment for me was Papley.
I think he probably works best with Buddy which is why his form has dropped off a cliff. He doesn't know what to do with himself anymore. Based his whole game around feeding off Buddy's scraps.
My gf made some pretty astute observations with Papley given she knows very little about afl:
1) Buddy is the shark and Papley is the little fish next to the shark eating the parasites.
2) Papley looks like Buzz Aldrin so she calls him 'Buzz.'
I think he probably works best with Buddy which is why his form has dropped off a cliff. He doesn't know what to do with himself anymore. Based his whole game around feeding off Buddy's scraps.
My gf made some pretty astute observations with Papley given she knows very little about afl:
1) Buddy is the shark and Papley is the little fish next to the shark eating the parasites.
2) Papley looks like Buzz Aldrin so she calls him 'Buzz.'
Surely Parker was nursing an injury going into the game, hence the move up forward. Coaches took too long to make the adjustment imo. Things changed drastically when they changed up the midfield mix.
If he's not carrying an injury, then it's not looking good for him in 2024.
If he's not carrying an injury, then it's not looking good for him in 2024.
SSwans2011
Hall of Famer
Yeah that's fair, but I also feel the same way about Stephens every time he plays. He gets ignored due to us always thinking corridor.
There was a few contests where I felt McInerney could have gone harder and a few costly missed tackles, perhaps had some doubt in himself after being out for a while.
Just feel like Stephens, for his faults, had shown more intensity at the contest, over the last month or so, than JMac did at times tonight.
Doesn't really matter, they'll both be good players for the better part of the next decade IMO.
- Oct 10, 2018
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I think Parker's had a big load this season but I would support more minutes in the forward line next season.
Good to see independent observers saw what we saw
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That is certainly a interesting take on things given we shouldn't of even be playing finals.
Virtually full squad means little without continuality and I imagine there was a waft of underdone players out there.
2022 was pissed up the wall.
The difference is mcinerney plays with confidence and understands our game plan. He's also exceptional at reading the play, including defensively.
Stephens lacks confidence, which can be found. But the one thing that sticks out is his poor ability to read the game. He finds himself lost in no man's land way too often which is half the reason why he doesn't get used. And when he does get onto a chain it feels forced, as if he's trying so hard to negate his positioning and decision making skills. Whilst mcinerney looks like he's gliding across the field with his mind ticking like clockwork.
RilesMacca
Close checking with Kane Cornes
- Apr 4, 2021
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Shoutout to Lloyd too - his composure was a class above the rest in the second half.
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Just wish he'd taken a shot at goal when he was on the 50 in the last quarter instead of looking for the pass
We practically pushed Hewett out the door, re-positioned Aliir to the same end. Membrey and Nank had no forseeable spot in a good side. Some of it was self-inflicted, others the misfortune of challenging often.
Stephens has been dropped a few times that others wouldn't, but needed to earn his spot back after some poor games this year. Whether he should have been dropped for JMac on fitness is a valid question.
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Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Was going to read the whole thread before commenting but this.
In the first half we were playing extras at clearances. As usual when we got the ball our fwds were outnumbered. We have fleet of foot runners but unless we have a fwd structure we can't take advantage. .
- Aug 17, 2014
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How has Gil/ the afl screwed you over exactly? IMO youāre probably the most looked after team in the comp outside of the expansion teams (because the afl needs a strong NSW presence)
Not having a go, curious to hear as I may be misinformed
Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Jog on champ.
Removal of COLA (at short notice) that was to lessen a disadvantage which now impacts in full. Trade ban for no reason. We've had a positive free kick differential 4 times in the last 20 years. Not to mention the farcical umpiring in the 2016 GF.
It's not necessarily a coordinated campaign by Gil or the AFL, but I wonder what planet other fans are on when they think we're a favourite of AFL HQ. I assume some mean the academy maybe, but those are short sighted people.
And like the expansion clubs we're faced with a go home factor that Vic clubs and to some extent the SA, WA clubs don't have to worry about. Not that the league cares, as long as Vic clubs get the major share of those benefits.
Also a bit rich given the Saints receive more funding than any club outside the expansion sides and Brisbane. Over $40m more than us in the last 11 years.
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Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Such a weird game and uneven performance from our team.
As usual I watchd with the commentary muted and flicked on the radio every now and then. Their three votes went to
Errol.
Gulden yet again played out of his skin. gGood things happen when he touches the ball.
McLean was again immense. His ball use for a big bloke was great. His pass to Amartey was elite. Hayden left his heart on the ground. So pleased he has a contract.
McCartin gave Curnow a hiding. Mills reduced Cripps to a sideshow. Plus I thought Blakey gave good run. Really happy Hickey had a strong second half as he gave it best shot.
Not going to bag other players but in general I thought several had down games.
Hopefully the match serves as a watershed for our coaching crew. Really happy Parker was taken from the mids to play forward. Think he played and directed traffic well. For mine he takes Haywards spot up forward Next year. Will can play down back as Harryās sunset is close and Oppo smalls cause us difficulty. He is not made for the responsibility of kicking goals.
Our coaches can be more flexible and trusting of the players. Throwing extras at clearances and behind the ball loses structure and saps momentum and has become routine. It really needs to stop.
Hope all the players have a relaxing but still hard working off season.
As usual I watchd with the commentary muted and flicked on the radio every now and then. Their three votes went to
Errol.
Gulden yet again played out of his skin. gGood things happen when he touches the ball.
McLean was again immense. His ball use for a big bloke was great. His pass to Amartey was elite. Hayden left his heart on the ground. So pleased he has a contract.
McCartin gave Curnow a hiding. Mills reduced Cripps to a sideshow. Plus I thought Blakey gave good run. Really happy Hickey had a strong second half as he gave it best shot.
Not going to bag other players but in general I thought several had down games.
Hopefully the match serves as a watershed for our coaching crew. Really happy Parker was taken from the mids to play forward. Think he played and directed traffic well. For mine he takes Haywards spot up forward Next year. Will can play down back as Harryās sunset is close and Oppo smalls cause us difficulty. He is not made for the responsibility of kicking goals.
Our coaches can be more flexible and trusting of the players. Throwing extras at clearances and behind the ball loses structure and saps momentum and has become routine. It really needs to stop.
Hope all the players have a relaxing but still hard working off season.
- Apr 17, 2007
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New here are ya?
-Stripped of cola.
-2 year trade ban.
-Forced to pay for Buddy's 9 year contract even if he chose to retire early (not applicable to any other team except us).
All of the above were enacted for no reason at all other than fairly recruiting Lance Franklin. Mike Fitzpatrick wanted him to go GWS, so he cracked the shits and did it all out of spite.
-We got royally screwed in 2016.
-AFL failed to show support for Goodes and was driven out of the game.
- Apr 26, 2016
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Mclean
Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Well yes!
In the end we lost by two finger nails. If this was our year, Campbell and Gulden would have scored those goals. Itās just been one of those almost but not quite type of years.
- Nov 11, 2012
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Simple not good enough this year , scraping in showed that
Making up the numbers letās be honest
Hopefully improvement next year has us a top 8 contender
Making up the numbers letās be honest
Hopefully improvement next year has us a top 8 contender
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